Melbourne Cup Preview (4am Tuesday)

04:00 Flemington Lexus Melbourne Cup Group 1 Handicap (3YO plus) 2m

The way INCENTIVISE laughed at them in the Caulfield Cup was mightily impressive so it’s no surprise to see him priced up as the shortest favourite since Phar Lap back in 1930 (won at 8/11). History is certainly against him but he arrives chasing TEN WINS IN A ROW and is a perfect 2-2 at this track. He has won 9 times from 12 starts and is looking to stamp himself as the best stayer in the country. Bookmakers in Australia stand to lose approximately $50 million if he manages to justify favouritism on Tuesday.

The negative against him is the rise in weight from 55.5kg to 57kg here. The last winner to carry 57kg+ was Makybe Diva back in 2005. It’s hard not to be taken with him though and I’d rather keep him onside than take him on in what does look a weaker renewal than usual (due to strict COVID regulations there are only 2 horses prepared outside Australia and New Zealand among the 24 lining up). Some bookies have been quoted as to saying he is really an odds-on shot for the race but given the nature of the contest they are forced to try and take him on. The way he won the Caulfield Cup you’d be confident he’d get two miles but I guess that is the doubt as there is some uncertainty on breeding. If he stays then surely he wins?

Trainer Peter Moody:

“He’s a deserved favourite on form. I’ve just tried to maintain him and hold him together and I’ve been able to do that quite comfortably through his resilience and the way he’s done around the stables. Let’s hope he has a bit of luck and he can continue to build on what has been a wonderful carnival for him so far.”

While I’m confident the favourite is the one to beat I am going to play two at huge prices I think can run well. GRAND PROMENADE is the first of them. He is ultra consistent having placed 14 times from 19 starts and he is versatile as to how the race will be run. He can push forward but he has also won by coming from off the pace too. He led all the way to win the Listed Bano Paterson at the track in July and was also a good winner of the Group 3 Bart Cummings last time. He is tough and honest and the dry track is definitely a plus so I think he ticks plenty of boxes and 16/1 just looks too big.

My second play at big odds has to be PERSAN who came from out the clouds to finish fifth in this race last year. He did head into the race last year in progressive form and has arguably regressed this year but he has been better since resuming placing on return before holding on gamely for third in the Caulfield Cup having raced on the speed. I’m not saying he can turn the tables with the fav but with a bit of luck I think he’ll be bang there and 25/1 is huge in terms of running a place. Plenty of lively dangers possibly headed by Delphi who won the Group 2 Herbert Power before bumping into Incentivise in the Caulfield Cup. The faster conditions will suit but he has to find 10+ lengths which is a big ask.