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Cheltenham Festival Day 1 Best Bets
Here you will find our Cheltenham Festival Day 1 Best Bets. This includes both our NAP (best bet) & NB (Next Best) which we’ve combined to make a Daily Double.
There are 7 races at Cheltenham on Tuesday and our best bets run in the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and the Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle.
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- Price Promise applies to bets placed on Win and Each-Way Fixed Odds markets from 10am on the day of the race up to 15 minutes before the scheduled ‘off’ time for each ITV race. Prices matched against selected bookmakers.
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Cheltenham Festival Day 1 NAP – Best Bet
ADD CHELTENHAM NAP CONCERTISTA TO BET365 BET SLIP!
Cheltenham 3.40 Concertista (11/10)
Progressive mare who won Dawn Run head in chest at last year’s Festival; continued to improve since 2-2 in Graded races this campaign, running on strongly last time; more to come and trainer seeking tenth win in this race.
Key Trends to note
– 11/13 winners trained in Ireland
– 9/13 winners trained by Willie Mullins
– 12/13 winners had won over 2m4f (or further)
– 10/13 winners rated at least 150
– 8/13 winners sent off 9-4 or shorter
Willie Mullins is the most successful trainer in the history of the Cheltenham Festival so it’s no surprise to see him with a strong hand again at this year’s Festival. We’ll be hoping he has at least a double on Day 1 and his strongest chance may well be the exciting CONCERTISTA in the Mares’ Hurdle. She looks the most progressive mare in the field for me and I can’t get out of my head how impressive she was at least year’s Festival. She dismantled the field and when Daryl Jacob gave her a squeeze she motored clear to win by 12 widening lengths. She has done nothing wrong since, always doing enough to win on return at Fairyhouse before improving to run out an impressive winner up to this trip at Leopardstown last time. She stayed on strongly and looked to relish the step back up in trip. I think she can step forward again and if she does she will have all of these in trouble. Mullins is seeking a tenth win in the race and you’d be a braver man than me to oppose him.
Any dangers?
The Skelton’s are represented with Roksana. She was a fortunate winner of this race in 2019 when Benie Des Dieux fell at the last and while she is clearly talented herself I think she is better over further (which is why they took so long to decide on her target) and she might just get tapped for toe when the taps are turned on. I expect her to finish second but I’ll be surprised if she has the speed and class to overhaul the favourite who will hopefully be away and gone. Dame De Compagnie is back over hurdles now and has to be respected but the stable are just struggling for a bit of form at the moment and I can see her running well without being good enough.
Anything worth a saver?
Given the shape of the race I do think it’s worth backing one at a price to hit the frame. Black Tears had been progressing nicely but I did think she looked a bit workmanlike at Punchestown last time and while she should strip fitter again I think she needs to find more. I’ve decided to put forward a stablemate to the selection in GREAT WHITE SHARK as a bit of value to run into a place. She is around 16/1 at the time of writing and while she was below par at Gowran, dropping back in trip at a track she ran well at when third in the Martin Pipe I can see her running better than her odds suggest. Floressa might improve for this longer trip and could be one for the bet365 Each Way Extra.
Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle
Cheltenham Tuesday 3.40 Concertista (best price 11/10) NAP
Great White Shark (best price 16/1) Each Way Saver
Cheltenham Festival Day 1 NEXT BEST – Second Best Bet
ADD CHELTENHAM NEXT BEST APPRECIATE IT TO BET365 BET SLIP!
Cheltenham 1.20 Appreciate It (5/4)
Inexperience cost him when runner-up in last year’s Champion Bumper; 3-3 over hurdles since and impressive in Grade 1 Chanelle Pharma Novices’ Hurdle at Leopardstown last month, beating Ballyadam; will keep improving.
Key trends to note
– 21/24 winners had won last-time-out
– 8/9 winners had won a Graded novice hurdle
– 8/12 winners had won a bumper
– 7/8 winners sent off at single figures
– 5/14 winners trained by Willie Mullins
Unbeaten over hurdles APPRECIATE IT is likely to be a warm order to get punters off to a winning start at this year’s Cheltenham Festival. He hasn’t put a hoof wrong over hurdles so far winning with a sense of inevitability on each occasion. He blew rivals away in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown at Christmas keeping on strongly in the closing stages to win by 9 lengths. He had the likes of Ballyadam and Thedevilscoachman trailing in his wake and that form has been well advertised since. He probably wasn’t seen to best effect last time but he still came away comfortably in the closing stages and while I like Ballyadam as a horse he has a mountain to climb to try and reverse that form. Given he stays further I’m expecting Paul Townend to be proactive on this horse and he should make it a real test of speed and stamina. I just can’t see anything living with him in the closing stages and he looks the most likely winner.
Who’s the dangers?
Only 8 runners this year which is nearly half the size of last year when Shishkin nosed out Abacadabras. That doesn’t mean it’s an easier race as there is still enough quality in here with Metier coming here unbeaten too for Harry Fry. He has looked impressive and won the Tolworth by 12 lengths last time. I just wonder if he needs deep ground to be seen at his best though? I also worry about him under pressure and if he gets eyeballed up the hill what will he find? There are enough doubts in my mind to oppose him. Betfair Hurdle winner Soaring Glory comes here but they don’t have a great record in the race so again I think he might be one to take on.
Is there an each way saver to be had?
I have narrowed the dangers down to Ballyadam and BLUE LORD and I think the latter might be worth a few quid each way at a bigger price. I think he’ll be suited by the better ground and with a good test I can see him getting a nice toe into it so I think he’ll pick up the pieces in terms of a place. That may well be behind the selection and Ballyadam but at the price he is worth a saver. He is clearly very talented but doesn’t always channel it in the right direction so if things fall right for him he could be a lively danger to the selection. Past those mentioned I don’t see Irascible, Grumpy Charley or For Pleasure being good enough and they are comfortably ruled out.
Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
Cheltenham Tuesday 1.20 Appreciate It (best price 5/4) NEXT BEST
Blue Lord (best price 10/1) Each Way Saver
Cheltenham Festival Day 1 Daily Double
ADD DAILY DOUBLE TO BET365 BET SLIP!
We’ve combined our two strongest bets on Day 1 of the Cheltenham Festival to make a Daily Double which is a great way of covering our two best bets of the day to maximise profit.
Cheltenham Festival Day 1 Daily Double
Cheltenham Tuesday 1.20 Appreciate It NEXT BEST
Cheltenham Tuesday 3.40 Concertista NAP
Pays 7/2!
Cheltenham Festival Day 1 Each Way Saver Double
ADD EACH WAY SAVER DOUBLE TO BET365 BET SLIP!
As mentioned above we’ve backed two horses at big prices as they look value in the betting so here we’ve combined them to make an Each Way Saver Double. If both place we should make some good profit.
Cheltenham Festival Day 1 Each Way Saver Double
Cheltenham Tuesday 1.20 Blue Lord EACH WAY SAVER
Cheltenham Tuesday 3.40 Great White Shark EACH WAY SAVER
Pays 186/1!