Cheltenham Festival Day 3 Tips

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CHELT FEST CONTINUES! We’re just warming up with another 7 races to get stuck into on Thursday. The feature is the Stayers’ Hurdle where Paisley Park is looking to regain his crown!

We’ll include key information like how we think the race will be run and who we see emerging as the main danger (or dangers). In most races this year we have included an Each Way Saver (at a big price).

Marsh Novices’ Chase – Grade 1 2m4f
Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle – Grade 3 3m
Ryanair Chase – Grade 1 2m41/2f
Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle – Grade 1 3m
Paddy Power Plate Handicap Chase – Grade 3 2m41/2f
Parnell Properties Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle – Grade 2 2m1f
Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase – 3m2f

Quick recap on Day 2

The day started really promisingly yesterday as Bob Olinger routed them in the Ballymore. He looks a horse armed with enormous potential going forward so certainly a name you’ll be hearing again. Monkfish got the job done in the Brown Advisory always doing enough to win from Fiddlerontheroof. The loose horse didn’t make it easy for him but his class saw him home after a mistake at the last. We then had Sayo place at 66/1 in the Coral Cup but our main selections were well beaten sadly.

Put The Kettle On sprung an upset in the Champion Chase with Chacun Pour Soi only third in the end having looked the most likely over the last. Sky Pirate won the Grand Annual for Jonjo O’Neill and we had a big run from On The Slopes at 20/1 in fourth. Sir Gerhard took the bumper with Kilcruit given too much to do in second. Both look extremely exciting going forward though and we may well have the Supreme and Ballymore favourites in the 1-2. Hopefully we can find you some more winners as we get stuck into Day 4. Always good to hit a bit of form going into Gold Cup Day on Friday so be lucky!

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Marsh Novices’ Chase 2m4f

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Key Trends

– 9/10 winners won or placed in a graded chase last time out
– 6/10 winners were Grade 1 novice hurdler winners
– 8/10 winners started at 4/1 or shorter
– only 1 winner older than 7 years old
– only 1 winner started greater than 7-1

Cheltenham 1.20 Envoi Allen (4/6)

Maintained his unbeaten record making it 3-3 over fences at Punchestown in January; won the Bumper and Ballymore at last two Festivals; not done improving yet and should take this with a minimum of fuss.

Cheltenham 1.20 Shan Blue (7/2 without Envoi Allen)

Quickly developed into a smart chaser winning his first 3 starts impressively including the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day; not disgraced last time and should run well with conditions to suit.

There are plenty of superstars on show this week and not many will be as popular as ENVOI ALLEN. He is one of the most exciting horses in training and we still haven’t seen just how good he is going to be. He is a minimum of 8lb clear of these on ratings and will be the one that is in everyones accas. His win in the Ballymore last year was very good and he has a great chance of making it 12 wins in-a-row.

At the prices it is worth finding a bet without the favourite and I think SHAN BLUE has top form to his name which has been franked already this week. He has been pitched into Grade 1’s on his last two appearances and he beat The Big Breakaway (third to Monkfish yesterday) and lost out to Sporting John who ran a cracker that day. He looks a solid bet to chase home Envoi Allen.

Quite a few horses didn’t fancy taking on Envoi Allen so dangers to the bets are limited. Chantry House is a classy horse but his chase form lacks a bit of substance so he has it to prove and I think Blackbow who has been running behind Energumene could be the one to chase the 2 selections home. Fusil Raffles will be suited by the ground drying out but again he has enough to find with the favourite.

Bet365 ITV Racing 4/1 Offer is perfect for backing Shan Blue

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Marsh Novices’ Chase

Cheltenham Thursday 1.20 Envoi Allen (best price 4/6)

Shan Blue without the favourite (best price 7/2)

Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle 1.55

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Trends

– The past 5 winners were trained in Ireland
– 7/8 winners were unexposed over 3+ miles
– 4/5 winners ran in the Leopardstown qualifier
– 6/7 winners had 7 or less hurdles starts
– Only 1 of the past 11 winners won more than once earlier in the season

Cheltenham 1.55 The Bosses Oscar (6/1)

Fifth in last year’s Martin Pipe and returned with a convincing win at Thurles in October; second to Flooring Porter at Navan before running a big race in defeat when beaten a length by Dandy Mag at Leopardstown; plenty going for him.

Cheltenham 1.55 Champagne Platinum (13/2)

Given too much to do when well backed in the Kim Muir last season but never entirely convinced chasing; big eye-catcher when runner-up at Haydock last month and potentially really well handicapped.

Cheltenham 1.55 Storm Goddess (40/1)

Showed a great attitude to prevail by a nose at Kempton in November and wasn’t beaten far up in trip there next start; blew away the cobwebs in a jumpers bumper last month; could easily out-run her odds with drying ground a plus.

This is one of those races where the qualifying for this is a bit suspect as you can come in the top 6 in any qualifier so it becomes a bit of a minefield. Ireland have taken the last 5 runnings of this race and it is a race Gordon Elliott targets obviously running under Denise Foster now and THE BOSSES OSCAR is one I really like. He was second in the qualifier behind the re-opposing Dandy Mag which is usually the best qualifier for this race. The run before that where he was second to Flooring Porter who goes to the Stayers Hurdle with a live chance looks top form and he has to be in the mix in this even off top-weight.

Nicky Henderson was the last non-Irish trainer to win this and CHAMPAGNE PLATINUM looks to have been targeted at this some way out. He ran a good second in the trial to Bushypark and went up 1lb for that. He ran well for a long way in the Kim Muir last season and will thrive at this slightly shorter trip and I can see him running a big race as there does still appear to be juice in his mark of 139.

One I like at a big price is STORM GODDESS who can be found down near the foot of the weights. She looks like she has plenty more to come over this trip having run well behind Bannixtown Glory at her first attempt. She seems to have been wanting further for a while which could leave her well handicapped.

Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle

Cheltenham Thursday 1.55 The Bosses Oscar (best price 6/1) Each Way

Champagne Platinum (best price 13/2) Each Way

Storm Goddess (best price 40/1) Each Way Saver

Ryanair Chase 2.30

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Trends

– All 13 winners (since it became a Grade 1) had won over a minimum of 2m4f
– 10/13 winners had already won a Grade 1
– Horses rated 170+ are 3-4 during the past 10 years
– 14/16 winners were in the top 3 of the betting
– 5/12 winners hadn’t run since Christmas

Cheltenham 2.30 Samcro (12/1)

High-class chaser who prevailed on the nod to win the Marsh Novices’ Chase from Melon at last year’s Festival; shaped well on return when third at Down Royal but no show in Savills Chase; freshened up since and definitely has a shout.

We have a VALUE TIP every day and we put up a horse in this race on oddschecker earlier in the week as our best Value Tip selection of the week. It has drifted slightly but we are still really confident of a big run. To get access just head over to the oddschecker app where you can see our full reasoning behind our selection.

Given the make-up of the race this year I think it’s worth having a saver and that has to be SAMCRO for Denis Foster. This horse has some serious back-class and he ran huge to win the Marsh at last year’s Festival. He hasn’t done much this season to be confident but he is the type of horse that comes alive at the Festival and if he bounces back to his best he will be a big player in this field. Both Min and Allaho have question marks coming into this so Melon may well end up being the one he has to beat again along with our Value Tip (on oddschecker). I just think at the prices he has to be included each way as I fancy him to run a big race.

Bet365 are paying an extra place on this race, you can now get 5 places.

Ryanair Chase

Cheltenham Thursday 2.30 VALUE TIP

Samcro (best price 12/1) Each Way Saver

Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle 3.05

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Key Trends to note

– 14 of the last 24 winners had won or placed at the Festival
– Previous winners of the race tend to go well
– Hold-up horses are suited by the new course at Cheltenham
– 1 of the last 48 winners were 10 or above
– No 5yo has ever won

Cheltenham 3.05 Paisley Park (9/4)

Leading staying hurdler who made relentless headway to peg back Thyme Hill and win the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot in December; excuses in this last year so looking to put that right now and regain his crown.

Cheltenham 3.05 The Storyteller (11/1)

Ran his heart out when second to Kemboy in the Irish Gold Cup last time and if he can reproduce that back over hurdles he definitely has it in him to run better than his odds suggest and hit the frame; worth including.

Losing Thyme Hill at the 7-day declaration stage was a big loss for the race and we miss out on the re-match against PAISLEY PARK but we were likely to side with today’s selection anyway. It would be amazing to see Paisley Park regain his Stayers Hurdle crown after he didn’t run his race last year due to a heart issue. He looks to have a great chance and back to his best when last seen chinning Thyme Hill on the line at Ascot. He will be staying on again and if in the same form as last time he will take all the beating.

Last years winner Lisnagar Oscar never gets the credit he deserves and will go under the radar again. He hasn’t done much this season but comes alive at Cheltenham and I wouldn’t write-up him off. Flooring Porter has been popular in the build-up as he beat most of the Irish challengers last time but it will be really tough from the front.

The main dangers I think are Sire Du Berlais who has an incredible record at the Festival, Fury Road who’s form behind Monkfish would put him right up there in this and finally The Storyteller who is ultra constant and will surely run a big race.

I think at the odds it’s worth backing THE STORYTELLER each way. He will be staying on strongly in the closing stages and is the biggest price of those mentioned. He ran a cracker when second to Kemboy in the Irish Gold Cup last time and if he can replicate that level of form back over hurdles he is nailed on to run into the frame. Keith Donoghue is likely to ride him patiently and he should have every chance to come up the hill.

You can get 4 places on this race with bet365 which is ideal for The Storyteller

Stayers’ Hurdle

Cheltenham Thursday 3.05 Paisley Park (best price 9/4)

The Storyteller (best price 11/1) Each Way Saver

Paddy Power Plate Handicap Chase 3.40

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Trends

– The past 5 winners were novices or second-season chasers
– The past 5 winners had contested a Graded novice hurdle or novice chase
– 12 of the past 16 winners ran on or after 25 Jan
– 11 of the past 17 winners had 9 or less chase starts
– The past 7 winners were rated in the 140s

Cheltenham 3.40 The Shunter (9/2)

Improved no end for Emmet Mullins winning 4 of his last 6 and really impressed in the Greatwood here in November, winning with plenty in hand; shaped well over fences at Leopardstown before winning gamely latest; more to come.

Cheltenham 3.40 Sully D’Oc Aa (18/1)

Been a work in progress but came alive winning impressively at Ascot in October which looks strong form; in the process of running huge before making a mistake at the last and losing momentum at Newbury; potentially well handicapped with more to come.

Given the nature of the race 9/2 is about right for THE SHUNTER but he is the most likely winner for me. He won the Greatwood in impressive style and shaped as though he’d benefit from a step up in trip when third to A Wave Of The Sea at Leopardstown last month. He came on again to win the Morebattle at Kelso last time showing a good attitude and with further progress a distinct possibility back over fences and up in trip he is surely going to go close and give connections a good crack at that £100K bonus. They should go a good pace here and it will really help give him a target to aim at. He was always doing enough at the line last time and this trip should prove ideal.

Farclas won the Triumph impressively here in 2018 and has run in some red-hot handicaps this season so has the interesting profile to try and take him on with but I just think he has the potential to rate higher and if he steps forward again he’ll go very close.

A Wave Of The Sea did it well last time with the selection back in third so while I fancy The Shunter to reverse that he is still a lively danger again especially with this stiffer test likely to suit. Caribean Boy has been well touted by his jockey Daryl Jacob and looked impressive at Newbury in November. He lost his way a bit since though so has a bit to prove but shouldn’t be far away in this field. At a big price it wouldn’t surprise me to see Oldgrangewood run well for the Skelton’s. He has some very solid form in the book and looks a bit big at around 25/1!

In a race as competitive as this I’ve got to back one at a bigger price each way and that horse is SULLY D’OC AA for Anthony Honeyball. This horse won really well at Ascot on return in October following a wind op and he was in the process of running a big race at Newbury before making an error at the last. He lost a lot of momentum before keeping on again so that effort can be upgraded. He has been put away since and has clearly been targeted at this race off a mark of 137. Worth including.

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Offer applies to first single bet placed. Applies to Win and Each-Way Fixed Odds markets and Enhanced Place Terms markets only. Bet restrictions and T&Cs apply. New and eligible customers only.

Plate Handicap Chase

Cheltenham Thursday 3.40 The Shunter (best price 9/2)

Sully D’Oc Aa (best price 18/1) Each Way Saver

Parnell Properties Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle 4.15

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Trends

– 5/5 winners trained by Willie Mullins
– Winners of the Solerina Mares Novice Hurdle are 2-3
– 4/5 winners were top or second-top rated
– 3/5 winners won a Graded race last time out
– 3/5 winners were unbeaten during the current season

Cheltenham 4.15 Glens Of Antrim (7/1)

Flemensfirth mare who has shown plenty of promise in three runs to date; looked to need the experience when fourth to Blue Lord at Punchestown but quickly stepped forward chasing home Stattler at Leopardstown; bumped into a good one latest; improving.

Cheltenham 4.15 Martello Sky (50/1)

Likeable grey who has done nothing but progress; seemed to improve with experience and did it easier than winning margin suggested last time; sure to keep improving and if she does she could get involved here at a price.

Back over 2 miles with a strong pace to aim at I’m expecting GLENS OF ANTRIM to run huge here. Willie Mullins has said she has improved nicely since that Naas run and I just think she bumped into one in Mr Incredible. That horse has form that ties in with Gaillard Du Mesnil and the latter acquitted himself well in the Ballymore yesterday. I think she’ll relish this sort of test and she can go close at a decent price.

The other mare I’ve got to include is MARTELLO SKY for Lucy Wadham. This good looking grey has done nothing but progress and she’s been winning her races with plenty up her sleeve. This requires another step forward as her price suggests but I don’t think they’ve got to the bottom of her yet and I don’t think she should be 50/1 in a race as open as this. She should run well with further improvement on the cards and I have to include her.

Roseys Hollow won the Solerina which is a good pointer for this race so she looks the one to beat. Royal Kahala and Gauloise also made the shortlist but I didn’t think their price represented much value so I’ve gone against them with the two selections I’m sweet on.

Bet365 ITV Racing 4/1 Offer is perfect for backing Glens Of Antrim

Back a winner at 4/1 or more and get a risk free bet on the next live ITV race (up to £50) at bet365.

Offer applies to first single bet placed. Applies to Win and Each-Way Fixed Odds markets and Enhanced Place Terms markets only. Bet restrictions and T&Cs apply. New and eligible customers only.

Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle

Cheltenham Thursday 4.15 Glens Of Antrim (best price 7/1)

Martello Sky (best price 50/1) Each Way

Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase 4.50

ADD MUSICAL SLAVE, CLOUDY GLEN AND STORM CONTROL TO BET365 BET SLIP

Trends

– 9/12 winners ran in February
– Only 1 winner of the last 12 was rated below 137
– JP McManus has owned 3 of the last 9 winners
– Hold-up horses tend to do better in this race
– Only 1 of the past 12 winners was rated below 137

Cheltenham 4.50 Musical Slave (12/1)

Progressive form over hurdles and didn’t take long to click over fences winning easily in the gloom at Exeter; not been at best since returning but jumping can improve so no surprise to see him run a big race under a patient ride.

Cheltenham 4.50 Storm Control (18/1)

Honest sort who made it 2-2 here despite idling badly in the closing stages over C&D in December; Warwick run best forgiven and no surprise to see him bounce back off what looks a getable mark if all goes to plan.

Cheltenham 4.50 Cloudy Glen (33/1)

Routed a competitive field to win the Southern National at Fontwell on return; failed to fire since but clearly has the ability and should be ridden quietly before looking to pick them off; if jumping holds up he can go close.

This race looks one of the hardest to call of the week with 23 runners set to go to post so I am going to have 3 in this. The first being MUSICAL SLAVE who runs pretty consistently off his mark and has been dropped 2lb for this. The drying ground looks as though it will suit him along with all the pace in the race. The Kim Muir does usually favour hold-up horses so I think Tom O’Brien will play him late like most JP McManus handicappers picking their way through the field late on.

Another who will like the pace of the race is CLOUDY GLEN who looks like he could do with going left-handed after jumping left a lot lately which is causing him issues. He is back down to a mark of 140 and I think he might out-run his odds if the race sets up to suit which looks likely.

The final selection is STORM CONTROL for Kerry Lee who clearly loves Cheltenham winning on both starts at the track. He pulled up last time but that was in tough conditions over further at Warwick. He looks much more at home on good to soft ground and with my other two bets likely to be coming late Storm Control will have a chance if the pace holds out at a fair each-way price.

Deise Aba looks the main danger after bouncing back to form last time in good fashion along with Shantou Flyer and Hold the Note. The latter is still winless over fences but he continues to run well so I can see him going close. The only issue is he is nearly vying for favouritism which is a bit off-putting.

Kim Muir

Cheltenham Thursday 4.50 Musical Slave (best price 12/1) Each Way

Storm Control (best price 18/1) Each Way

Cloudy Glen (best price 33/1) Each Way

Cheltenham Festival Day 3 Acca

Cheltenham 1.20 Envoi Allen WIN

Cheltenham 1.55 The Bosses Oscar PLACE

Cheltenham 3.05 Paisley Park WIN

Cheltenham 3.40 The Shunter PLACE

Pays 22/1!

Cheltenham Festival Day 3 Each Way Lucky 15

Cheltenham 1.55 Champagne Platinum EACH WAY

Cheltenham 2.30 Imperial Aura EACH WAY

Cheltenham 3.40 The Shunter EACH WAY

Cheltenham 4.15 Glens Of Antrim EACH WAY

Pays 2400/1!

Obviously this is a huge price but we’ll be hoping we can get all four to place which should pay some good profit. Anything more and it’s a bonus!