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Cheltenham Festival Day 4 Tips
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GOLD CUP DAY! A brilliant day ahead as Cheltenham Festival concludes with 7 races from Prestbury Park. The Gold Cup looks a cracker and we’ll be hoping Al Boum Photo can make it 3 in a row!
We’ll include key information like how we think the race will be run and who we see emerging as the main danger (or dangers). In most races this year we have included an Each Way Saver (at a big price).
JCB Triumph Hurdle – Grade 1 2m1f
McCoy Contractors County Handicap Hurdle – Grade 3 2m1f
Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle – Grade 1 3m
Wellchild Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase – Grade 1 3m21/2f
St. James’s Place Festival Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase – 3m21/2f
Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase – Grade 2 2m41/2f
Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle – 2m41/2f
Quick recap on Day 3
Where to start? From a punting perspective it was pretty rough with Envoi Allen falling in the first and Shan Blue going off too hard probably just about summing it up. Thankfully The Shunter stayed on strongly to land us the NB but no denying it was one for the bookies. The Thursday is notoriously tough though so hopefully we can bounce back on Gold Cup Day! Rachael Blackmore continues to go from strength to strength and if you missed if then I advise you go and watch her ride on Allaho as it was a demolition job from both horse and rider.
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Significant Terms and Conditions
- Price Promise applies to bets placed on Win and Each-Way Fixed Odds markets from 10am on the day of the race up to 15 minutes before the scheduled ‘off’ time for each ITV race. Prices matched against selected bookmakers.
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- Bet restrictions and T&Cs apply – New and eligible customers only.
JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m1f 1.20
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Key Trends
– 14/21 winners won or placed at graded level last time out
– 8/12 winners were unbeaten
– 5/8 winners were trained in Ireland
– Gordon Elliott trained horses are 2 wins and 2 seconds from 6 runners (now under Denise Foster – Zanahiyr and Henry de Bromhead – Quilixios)
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Cheltenham 1.20 Zanahiyr (5/4)
Exciting son of Nathaniel who has won his first 3 starts over hurdles and has been targeted at this since winning the Grade 2 Knight Frank Juvenile at Leopardstown over Christmas; could be very smart.
This is always a cracking race to kick off Gold Cup Day with plenty of exciting horses who will use this race as springboard to go on to bigger things. That is why plenty come here unbeaten like the selection ZANAHIYR. He his 3 from 3 over hurdles winning those by a combined 20 lengths whilst taking in a Grade 2 and 3 in the process. The form when he beat Saint Sam by 14 lengths looks very strong as he finished second in the Boodles earlier in the week. It is a good race but I think he could be a cut above these and he has to be my selection.
The main danger is undoubtedly Quilixios who beat the same rival Saint Sam by a shorter margin last time but his is 4 from 4 over hurdles and could be another top horse for Cheveley Park who are flying this week. I think this Irish pair might be a level above the rest of these and the forecast is a good play.
I respect Tritonic after his Adonis win as visually it was amazing but the form may not stack up. Adagio is one I like for the Pipe team and I think he is a big price so considered the saver in this (around 14/1) but couldn’t get away from the Irish pair.
Bet365 ITV Racing 4/1 Offer is perfect for backing Adagio
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McCoy Contractors County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m179y 1.55
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Trends
– The past 6 winners were trained by Willie Mullins or Dan Skelton
– 16/20 winners were novices or second-season hurdlers
– 13/15 winners were rated in the 130s
– 11/22 winners aged 5
– 9/14 winners trained in Ireland
Cheltenham 1.55 Ganapathi (13/2)
Landed the odds on hurdles debut at Cork in November; improved in defeat when second to Dreal Deal in a Grade 2 at Punchestown; shaped better than the bare result when fifth to Gaillard Du Mesnil last month; potentially well treated off a mark of 140.
Cheltenham 1.55 Third Time Lucki (8/1)
Fourth to Ferny Hollow in last year’s Champion Bumper and impressed over hurdles since winning 3 from 4 before disappointing at Musselburgh when making a bad mistake at the last; potential to do better and yard target this race.
Cheltenham 1.55 Gowel Road (16/1)
Big eye-catcher on debut chasing home Bear Ghylls before looking to need the experience at Newbury having been given a lot to do; impressed winning on next start and bolted up last time; cheekpieces on now and should relish this stiffer test.
Cheltenham 1.55 Saint D’Oroux (33/1)
Ran huge when third to Aramax in last year’s Fred Winter; been running well in defeat this term and wasn’t beaten that far when third to Drop The Anchor at Leopardstown last time; looks overpriced and should run a big race for Daryl Jacob.
Not an easy race to call and given our lack of winners in handicaps this week I’ve decided to take four against the field. With both Willie Mullins and Dan Skelton doing so well in this race in recent years I’ve taken both GANAPATHI who looks to have a favourites chance and THIRD TIME LUCKI who has looked mega progressive prior to that blip last time. The former has only raced 3 times so there could be plenty to come and it’s no surprise to see him prominent in the betting. The drop back in trip will help and this is easier than what he’s been contesting recently with the likes of Dreal Deal, Gaillard Du Mesnil, Stattler and Fakiera in front of him. Third Time Lucki strikes me as a horse that has more to give and with a strong pace to aim at I can see him running a big race.
At a bigger price GOWEL ROAD has to be included. He is chasing a hat-trick and while this represents another step up he has a likeable way of going and if he is there at the finish he should have every chance of getting on top. Some of his form really stacks up and at 16/1 he just looks too big. The final selection is 33/1 chance SAINT D’OROUX who has Festival form after chasing home Aramax in the Fred Winter and he hasn’t been too far away in a few runs this term and looks to have gone under the radar. Champagne Gold, Eclair De Beaufeu and Fifty Ball all made the shortlist in a difficult race.
County Handicap Hurdle
Cheltenham Friday 1.55 Ganapathi (best price 13/2) Each Way
Third Time Lucki (best price 8/1) Each Way
Gowel Road (best price 16/1) Each Way Saver
Saint D’Oroux (best price 33/1) Each Way Saver
Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m7213y 2.30
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Trends
– 14/16 winners contested a graded race last time
– 5/7 winners were trained in Ireland
– 10/12 winners had won at least twice over hurdles
– 5 yo’s are 1-45 since the race became a Grade 1
– Only 1 of the 16 winners had less than 3 hurdle runs
Cheltenham 2.30 Fakiera (11/2)
Tough sort who posted a career best when fourth to Gaillard Du Mesnil in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown last month; step up to 3 miles sure to suit and if he improves again it will take a good one to peg him back.
Cheltenham 2.30 Threeunderthrufive (12/1)
Progressive type who made it 3-3 over hurdles stepping up to 3 miles for the first time at Musselburgh last month; second has won well since to frank the form; this obviously tougher but can improve so shouldn’t be underestimated.
A race that usually takes an experienced horse to win and FAKIERA with 7 hurdle runs to his name looks a solid bet. He has won or placed in 5 of his last 6 runs and I think the step-up to 3 miles looks right up his street. He ran behind the classy Gaillard Du Mesnil last time and I think he will reverse that form with Stattler over this new trip. He should be able to put his experience to good use in this and I think he will be bang there at the end and at a very nice price.
FAKIERA IS IN OUR GOLD CUP DAY ACCA TO PLACE! YOU CAN GET 6/4 FOR HIM TO PLACE HERE!
Stattler is the obvious danger but I think THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE might be the biggest danger to the selection and is a decent price for a saver. He has won all of his hurdles starts at a lower level but has recorded fantastic times along the way and he looks to have this step-up in class in his range.
If like me you are willing to give a horse another chance Vanillier has the form to out-run his odds and I think he is a big price based on his Grade 2 second behind Farouk D’alene before finishing down the field at Leopardstown behind some of these. Others who made the shortlist include Torygraph and Alaphilippe.
Bet365 are paying an extra place on this race, you can now get 5 places.
Albert Bartlett
Cheltenham Friday 2.30 Fakiera (best price 11/2) NEXT BEST
Threeunderthrufive (best price 12/1) Each Way Saver
Wellchild Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) 3m2f70y 3.05
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Key Trends to note
– 19/21 winner had 12 or less chase starts
– 16/20 winners won last-time-out
– 12/13 winners had run no more than 3 times that season
– 9/18 winners were favourite
– 16/20 winners had won or placed at the festival previously
Cheltenham 3.05 Al Boum Photo (10/3)
Looking to be the first horse since Best Mate to win three Gold Cup’s in a row; returned with a routine win at Tramore on New Year’s Day; sound jumper and hard to find any chinks in his armour; sure to go close.
Cheltenham 3.05 Lostintranslation (33/1)
Beaten just over a length in this last year; not looked himself this season granted but feeling is they might have him back to somewhere near his best and if he can leave Newbury run behind he would have a squeak on ground that should suit.
Willie Mullins is the most successful trainer in the history of the Cheltenham Festival with 72 WINNERS but it took him 31 years to win the Gold Cup, and then he won it twice. AL ABOUM PHOTO was sent off a 12/1 chance back in 2019 and put in a faultless round of jumping to stay on relentlessly and win well under Paul Townend. He followed the same preparation last year winning under just hands and heels at Tramore before returning to Cheltenham showing a tremendous attitude to hold on from Santini. He never does anything flashy and while he was fav last year he wasn’t that strong in the betting sent off a 10/3 chance. He didn’t jump as well as he can last year but was still always doing just enough and the fact that was a more slowly-run race if anything that’s another string in his bow as he is tactically versatile. Given it took Mullins so long to win this race I wasn’t surprised to see him take the same route this year. He thrashed Acapella Bourgeois by 19 lengths (who has since come out and won) and while many argued it wasn’t visually as impressive as they’d hoped I was more than satisfied with that run. He is just a 9yo so you could argue he is coming to his peak now and I don’t see anything in here solid enough to oppose him with. He jumps and stays better than anything in this race and with a strong pace highly likely it should set up perfectly for him again. He is the highest rated horse in the field and if he runs his race he should complete the hat-trick.
Henry de Bromhead has a really strong team heading to the Festival this year and he’ll be hoping to be well represented in the big one with A Plus Tard. He is one of if not the most unexposed horse in the race given he has only run over fences over 3 miles once. That came in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown in December and it resulted in a win. He seemed to hit another gear on the run-in to pick up Kemboy and Melon and with the likes of Allaho trailing miles behind it looks really strong form. He is a horse on the upgrade and he has to be feared. So what are the negatives? Well while he stayed 3 miles at Leopardstown this is very much a different test so he still has to prove he’ll be as effective at Cheltenham. He can often hit flat spots and if that happens Al Boum Photo could already be away and gone. He is quite an idle horse so it’s going to take a very good ride to produce him at the right time. I just think he has a bit to find with the selection at this stage of his career and while he is hugely respected he might need more time to be seen to best effect. He beat Chacun Pour Soi at Leopardstown before only managing third in the Ryanair behind Min at last year’s Festival so you could also argue he peaks over Christmas as he’ll need much more than that sort of performance to get involved here.
Given Santini only went down a neck last year he is also worth a mention but he hasn’t done enough this season to suggest he is coming here in similar form and it might just all be happening a bit too quickly for him. At a huge price LOSTINTRANSLATION could have a squeak for team Tizzard. He was of course third in the race last year having looked the most likely winner at one stage and while things haven’t gone to plan since at 33/1 there are definitely worse each way bets going.
Nicky Henderson has always held Champ in high regard and he went some way to justifying that with a phenomenal late burst to win the RSA at last year’s Festival. That produced one of the finishes of the week given the amount of ground he had to make up to peg back Minella Indo and Allaho. We know those two horses are both very smart so there’s nothing wrong with that form. Bookmakers were quick to shorten him for the Gold Cup off the back of that but his preparation has been far from ideal this season. We have only seen him once and that was at Newbury last month. Nicky Henderson said he had a ‘lightbulb moment’ in the middle of the night to drop him back to 2 miles. Nico bounced him out and he looked to really enjoy himself, jumping well in the main before lacking the pace of the eventual winner Sceau Royal. That run must have done him the world of good but the issue is he now goes back up to 3m2f and it’s going to be hard to keep a lid on him early as this is an entirely different test. I know there’s a lot of pace on but if he switches off surely that’s when jumping errors could creep in? A lot like what we saw in the RSA last year. He won’t get away with jumping slowly in a race as good as this and while I don’t question his raw ability I have my doubts over him being the complete package yet and he’s too short in the betting.
You can get 4 places on this race with bet365 which is ideal for The Storyteller
Cheltenham Gold Cup
Cheltenham Friday 3.05 Al Boum Photo (best price 10/3) NAP
Lostintranslation (best price 33/1) Each Way Saver
St. James’s Place Festival Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase 3.40
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Trends
– 9/11 winners had a BHA Rating of 134+
– 6/11 winners finished in first 5 the previous year
– 8/12 winners returned at single-figure odds
– 8/13 winners won last-time-out
– 7/10 winners were trained in Ireland
Cheltenham 3.40 Bob And Co (5/1)
Talented chaser in France who brought up the hat-trick in this sphere when winning head in chest at Haydock last month; jumping can improve and will need to but gets his shot at this race now and likely to go very close.
Cheltenham 3.40 It Came To Pass (8/1)
Travelled well before staying on strongly to win this last year from Billaway with Staker Wallace only fourth; prep hasn’t been ideal unseating at Thurles last time but foolish to rule out another big run and worth including.
A tough race to call as usual but one thing I was keen to do was to oppose Billaway. He was given a lot to do last year granted but he is too short here despite beating Staker Wallace at Naas when last seen. I think he’s the type to always find one or two too good in this and has to be opposed at short odds. BOB AND CO has impressed me and he was going to be my selection last year before suffering a set-back. He had a wind op and was just as good on return slamming Wishing And Hoping at Haydock. He clearly has a big engine and if he takes his chance he is going to go close under Sean Bowen. He didn’t jump amazingly the last day so there’s room for improvement there but if he sharpens up expect him to be the one to beat.
Last year’s winner IT CAME TO PASS hasn’t had a great prep but I can see him coming alive here and he is good value to beat Billaway again. If Bob And Co fails to handle this test then he is definitely the value. Others to make the shortlist include Red Indian who has an interesting profile and at a bigger price Chameron could go well with Cobden in the saddle.
Bet365 ITV Racing 4/1 Offer is perfect for backing Bob And Co
Back a winner at 4/1 or more and get a risk free bet on the next live ITV race (up to £50) at bet365.
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St. James’s Place Festival Challenge Cup
Cheltenham Friday 3.40 Bob And Co (best price 5/1)
It Came To Pass (best price 8/1) Each Way Saver
Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase 4.15
Cheltenham 4.15 Elimay (4/5)
Likeable mare who has won 3 from 4 over fences and sole defeat came at the hands of Allaho who took apart the Ryanair by 12 lengths yesterday; back up in trip now which should suit and she is clearly the one to beat.
No trends to go on with this race but plenty of top class form is on show from some of these mares. ELIMAY is the prime example with 5 wins and 2 seconds in her last 7 runs. The best of that form was actually one of the second place finishes behind Allaho who dominated the Ryanair on Day 3 which saw Elimay’s price tumble to odds-on. The only saving grace from a price perspective is hopefully some of you saw her in our Cheltenham Acca and got the bigger price and Colreevy who is the second favourite will have some money for it after her form was franked by Mount Ida in the last. Elimay’s latest 5 plus length beating of Shattered Love looks solid form and the way she was eased down suggest there is more to come.
Colreevy is without doubt the main danger with some cracking form beating Kim Muir winner Mount Ida by 12 lengths and the Grade 1 win ahead of Pencilfuloflead is also top form. Magic Of Light is obviously a top class horse who was I thinking about having a saver on but unless she gets an easy lead this trip looks on the short side for the Grand National runner-up.
Of the rest Shattered Love would have to find a fair bit on this seasons form to reverse the running with Elimay. At a big price Zambella may have a bit to find on ratings but is in good form and could run well at 25s.
Bet365 ITV Racing 4/1 Offer is available on this race
Back a winner at 4/1 or more and get a risk free bet on the next live ITV race (up to £50) at bet365.
Offer applies to first single bet placed. Applies to Win and Each-Way Fixed Odds markets and Enhanced Place Terms markets only. Bet restrictions and T&Cs apply. New and eligible customers only.
Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) 2m4f56y 4.50
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Trends
– All 12 winners carried 11 stone 1lb or higher
– All 12 were aged 7 or younger
– 7 of the last 9 winners were rated 139+
– 6 of the last 7 winners ran over further earlier in the season
Cheltenham 4.50 Gabynako (8/1)
Powered clear to win in testing conditions at Naas in November; good form behind Ashdale Bob and Bob Olinger on next two starts before finishing midfield at Leopardstown; they could go hard here and if they do his stamina will come into play.
Cheltenham 4.50 Fire Attack (14/1)
Lightly raced sort who took a tumble at Punchestown in January but left that behind finishing a good third at the same venue behind Thedevilscoachman and French Light last time; tongue-tie added on handicap debut and been aimed at this.
Cheltenham 4.50 Frontal Assault (16/1)
Impressed winning a Grade 3 at Navan last month, staying on well in the closing stages; back into handicap company now and forms stacks up so no surprise to see him run well; Jordan Gainford brimming with confidence.
Just the 24 runner conditional jockey handicap to cap off the meeting and hopefully a good priced winner in the lucky last. GABYNAKO who’s trainer Gavin Cromwell took the Stayers Hurdle yesterday looks a decent prospect back up to 2 and a half miles. The form of the two runs over this trip look rock solid especially the third behind runaway Ballymore winner Bob Olinger. He ran in a handicap over the shorter trip last time and I expect him to go very close if in the same form as his previous run at Naas.
Another Irish contender I do like is FIRE ATTACK who has been pitched into very good races to start his hurdling career and 138 looks a very good mark considering the horses he was mixing with. He was last seen finishing second behind Thedevilscoachman and before that he ran in the Grade 1 at Leopardstown that Appreciate It won so well. He was just touched off by Fakiera (runs in the Albert Bartlett earlier on the card) on hurdling debut in a Grade 3 at this trip and if in the same form he will outrun his double-figure price.
The final selection is FRONTAL ASSAULT who also runs in the Gigginstown colours and comes out well on all the trends. He looks versatile from a trip perspective and stays further if it becomes a stamina test. The booking of the talented Jordan Gainford looks a big plus as well. He will be oozing confidence after his second on The Bosses Oscar and win on The Shunter yesterday.
The dangers are obviously the favourite Gentleman De Mea who could anything but there is always a JP McManus horse that is way too short for this every year and he could be it. Langer Dan was so impressive in the Imperial Cup at Sandown but he may be at his best over 2 miles and this comes soon enough.
Martin Pipe
Cheltenham Friday 4.50 Gabynako (best price 8/1) Each Way
Fire Attack (best price 14/1) Each Way
Frontal Assault (best price 16/1) Each Way
Cheltenham Festival Day 4 Acca
Cheltenham 1.20 Zanahiyr WIN
Cheltenham 2.30 Fakiera PLACE
Cheltenham 3.05 Al Boum Photo PLACE
Cheltenham 4.15 Elimay WIN
Pays 16/1!
Cheltenham Festival Day 4 Each Way Lucky 15
Cheltenham 1.55 Ganapathi EACH WAY
Cheltenham 2.30 Fakiera EACH WAY
Cheltenham 3.40 Bob And Co EACH WAY
Cheltenham 4.50 Fire Attack EACH WAY
Pays 3464/1!
Obviously this is a huge price again but we’ll be hoping we can get all four to place which should pay some good profit. Anything more and it’s a bonus!
