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Cheltenham Festival Day 4 Tips
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DAY 4 OF THE CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL! Gold Cup Day is here already and it’s another fascinating card. Looking forward to Vauban in the Triumph as well.
We’ll include key information like how we think the race will be run and who we see emerging as the main danger (or dangers). Profit and loss will be calculated to level stakes (same as our oddschecker bets) and posted daily to Twitter.
JCB Triumph Hurdle – Grade 1 2m179y
McCoy Contractors County Handicap Hurdle – Grade 3 2m179y
Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle – Grade 1 2m7f213y
Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase – Grade 1 3m2f70y
St. James’s Place Festival Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase – 3m2f70y
Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase – Grade 2 2m4f127y
Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle – 2m4f56y
JCB Triumph Hurdle 1.30
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Trends
– 9/13 unbeaten
– 5/7 started career in France
– 18/24 won last time out
– 8/10 had run by Christmas time
– 6/9 trained in Ireland
– 6/10 contest Spring Juvenile
– 7/7 Adonis winners all unplaced
Cheltenham 1.30 Vauban (2/1)
Good looking chestnut who was backed like defeat was out the question before a last flight mistake cost him victory at Punchestown; quickly put that right thrashing Fil Dor at Leopardstown; only going to improve; hard to beat.
This looks like a quality renewal of the Triumph with a few of these horses looking to be stars of the future. No more so than VAUBAN who was beaten by the re-opposing Pied Piper on debut but he made a mistake at the last and probably would have won. He bounced back with a classy win when powering away from Fil Dor in a matter of strides at the Dublin Racing Festival. He took a massive step forward from his debut and will likely improve again here and it will take a lot to beat him.
Pied Piper is still likely the main danger after he routed a lesser field over course and distance. He is still improving and will run a big race but I think the selection has the edge now. Of the rest Fil Dor and Icare Allen could improve for here and fight it out for a place in what looks a decent renewal with plenty of potential on show.
McCoy Contractors County Handicap Hurdle 2.10
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Trends
– 17/21 novice or second season hurdlers
– 17/23 aged 5 or 6
– 13/16 rated in 130s
– 10/15 trained in Ireland
– 9/18 ran in France on Flat
– 8/14 20/1 or bigger
– 6/8 ran at Cheltenham previously
Cheltenham 2.10 West Cork (8/1)
Yard do well in this race having won 3 of the last 6 renewals; really impressed on return from a monster layoff beating Adagio in the Greatwood here in November; promise again when fifth at Ascot latest; well handicapped.
Cheltenham 2.10 Colonel Mustard (10/1)
Likeable sort who bolted up at Galway back in the autumn before bumping into Jonbon at Ascot and then chasing home Sir Gerhard and Three Stripe Life at Leopardstown; more to come yet and set to run a big race here.
Cheltenham 2.10 I Like To Move It (14/1)
Won first 3 starts over hurdles before jumping let him down at Ascot; back on track in a big way beaten just a short head in the Betfair Hurdle last month and primed to have a big say in the outcome here if in the same form.
There was a 33/1 upset in this last year in the shape of Belfast Banter. I think it’s a very different race this year though and if I’m being honest I struggled to warm to anything above 20/1 so I’ve taken 3 against the field but they are a bit shorter than I’d usually go in this race. The first selection has to be WEST CORK for a trainer in Dan Skelton that targets this race. He has 3 in here and this son of Midnight Legend is clearly his main hope with Harry Skelton jockey up. He defied a mammoth layoff to win the Greatwood here in November and given the issues the horse faced that was some training performance. I know he could only finish fifth at Ascot but he moved through that race stylishly and back at this track he is clearly well handicapped off a mark of 141 and I’m confident he is going to go close.
Another horse that would have to be of interest here is COLONEL MUSTARD. He is very much unexposed which is what you want in this race and since hacking up at Galway he has bumped into Jonbon and then chased home Sir Gerhard and Three Stripe Life at Leopardstown. That is form we saw well advertised earlier in the week and now handicapping off a mark of 140 he could really come into his own. I think he’ll be suited by this big field and something is telling me he could end up being one of the gambles of the day nearer post time. He has a very talented 3lb claimer on his back and should give us a great run for our money.
With 28 heading to post for this I’m also going to include I LIKE TO MOVE IT for the in-form Nigel and Sam Twiston-Davies. This 5yo has looked a really nice horse to date winning his first 3 over hurdles including two here before his jumping let him down at Ascot behind Jonbon. He bounced back in a big way when denied just a short head in the Betfair Hurdle last month and if he runs to that sort of level again in here it is going to put him right in the mix. I like the fact he loves it here and he definitely looks open to further progress so he is another one I can’t see how he won’t be involved at the finish. Likely dangers include the hugely unexposed State Man, the progressive Top Bandit and at a bigger price I thought Broomfield Burg could run well. He is a tricky ride but if things drop right he might be a bit overpriced at around 20/1.
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McCoy Contractors County Handicap Hurdle
Cheltenham Friday 2.10 West Cork (best price 8/1) each way
Colonel Mustard (best price 10/1) each way
I Like To Move It (best price 14/1) each way
Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle 2.50
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Trends
– 16/17 won or placed in novice hurdle
– 15/17 contested graded novice hurdle last time
– 13/18 first or second last time out
– 14/16 aged 6 or 7
– 12/17 at least 2 wins over hurdles
– 10/17 won over 2m7f plus
– 6/8 trained in Ireland
Cheltenham 2.50 Hillcrest (10/3)
Big strong horse who is unlucky not to be unbeaten over hurdles but quickly put that unseat behind him galloping out effortlessly to hack up at Haydock last month; more to come for sure and unexposed at this trip.
It is nice to see a big field for the a novice race with smaller field sizes in plenty of races this week. It does usually take a battle-hardened horse to win that has a bit of class and HILLCREST fits the bill. He is 4 wins from 5 over hurdles and is unlucky to have lost having been pretty much brought down at Cheltenham in January. He is a huge horse who seems pretty versatile including his ability to handle any ground. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was backed into favourite nearer the race and he gets a confident vote here.
I flagged up SHANTREUSSE as a nice each-way prospect for this race and he is an even better price now. He handles any ground as he showed when winning a Grade 3 at Clonmel last time out. He has improved with every run and should relish this test at Cheltenham. If he improves again he looks well overpriced. Ginto is the favourite at the time of writing after swerving the Ballymore and Sir Gerhard. He steps up to 3 miles for the first time which is interesting and will surely be the danger but still has to prove his stamina on the biggest stage. Of the rest Minella Cocooner could have a say if in the same form as his win at the Dublin Racing Festival.
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Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle
Cheltenham Friday 2.50 Hillcrest (best price 10/3)
Shantreusse (best price 14/1) each way saver
Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase 3.30
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Trends
– 20/22 12 or less chase starts
– 17/21 won or placed at the Festival previously
– 13/20 won graded novice hurdle over 2-2m4f
– 6/6 horses placed in the Supreme
– 21/22 aged 7-9
– 16/21 won last time out
– 6/8 Ireland trained
Cheltenham 3.30 Minella Indo (11/2)
Travelled strongly in this last year before staying on best up the hill to hold A Plus Tard at bay; pulled up in the King George but very much got back on track when second in the Irish Gold Cup last time; been primed for this.
Cheltenham 3.30 Protektorat (8/1)
Ran a cracker here beaten only narrowly in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at the November meeting; won head in chest at Aintree in December and put away since with this very much in mind; could go under the radar here.
I’m really looking forward to the Gold Cup this year. I’ve got to be honest it is a race I’ve found tough in recent years and I haven’t actually backed the winner in it since 2013 when Bobs Worth stormed up the hill. I’ve had a few places but I think that shows how tricky it can be. It looks a tough puzzle to solve again this time around but from a racing perspective I’m expecting it to be an epic renewal. MINELLA INDO showed a strong staying display to win it last year and I think he can confirm that form with A Plus Tard despite an indifferent season. He ran his best race since winning this last year chasing home Conflated in the Irish Gold Cup and everything to me suggests he is going to peak again for the big day. He will just tuck in off the speed and I’m keen to keep him on side.
Galvin has the sexy profile coming into this and also comes good at the Festival but I think he has been overbet now and I have to say I’m surprised he is going off favourite here. I’m just not sure he is good enough to win a Gold Cup. Given the make-up of the race I’ve decided to have an each way saver as well and PROTEKTORAT is very much the dark horse in here for Dan Skelton. It’s Harry Skelton’s first ride in a Gold Cup and it would be some story if it was to be a winning one. This horse ran huge when beaten narrowly in the Paddy Power Gold Cup here in November before hacking up at Aintree. He is a young chaser on the upgrade and freshened up for this I think he’s going to run huge. At a silly price if Asterion Forlonge puts in a clear round of jumping he might not be the worst 25/1 shot in history but that is easier said than done.
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Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase
Cheltenham Friday 3.30 Minella Indo (best price 11/2)
Protektorat (best price 8/1) each way saver
St. James’s Place Festival Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase 4.10
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Trends
– 26/33 started career in P2P or hunter chase
– 10/12 rated 134 plus
– 12/15 had yet to win over this trip
– 7/7 aged 10 or 11
– 6/12 finished in first 5 last year
– 1/12 ran in a P2P last time out
– British-bred horses are 0-84 during the past 19 years
Cheltenham 4.10 Billaway (5/2)
Ran well to finish second to It Came To Pass in this two years ago before being nailed a short head last year; impressed at Naas last time and looks set to finally go one better in this now; should prove tough to beat.
The Fox Hunter’s isn’t a race I get stuck into but I do think it will be third time lucky for BILLAWAY who has finished second in the race twice. He ticks the majority of the boxes for the race and based on his run last year where he lost by a short head I think he has a great chance. The yard have said cheekpieces have really helped and it could see him take the step forward to win this.
There are a few in here that might challenge him including Bob And Co who beat him at Punchestown last season after unseating in this race. Winged Leader also beat the selection but that was on his first run of the season and I expect that form to be reversed.
St. James’s Place Festival Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase
Cheltenham Friday 4.10 Billaway (best price 5/2)
Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase 4.50
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Trends
– only 1 renewal (Colreevy)
– last years winner was a novice
– She was unbeaten
– She was a Grade 1 winner
– 3 penalised runners first 4 home
– 150 plus mares
– unexposed/ Cheltenham Festival form a plus
Race Live Stream
ITV racing finishes before this race so bet365’s live streaming is great to watch the last 2 races on each day of the festival.
Stream every race at Cheltenham here
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Cheltenham 4.50 Elimay (best price 2/1)
Likeable mare who went down just half a length to Colreevy in this last year with the rest well strung out; improved with every start this season winning head in chest at Naas last month; should peak for this so obvious chance.
With question marks over Mount Ida’s jumping ELIMAY looks a really strong play here for Willie Mullins. This mare went mightily close in this last year having suffered some interference late and with a very similar preparation this time around I think everything points towards a big run again. She will travel strongly and if Mount Ida jumps out to her right I think that’ll make her vulnerable and the selection might always be dominating under Mark Walsh. The latter did beat the selection at Fairyhouse but that is a right-handed track and to me the selection still didn’t look fully fit. She has no excuses now and looks a great bet to turn the tables.
Bar the front pair I thought it might be worth having an each way saver on VIENNA COURT for Nigel Twiston-Davies. She really disappointed me getting beat by Pink Legend at Huntingdon but back at this track where she has won her last two I can see her bouncing back and at around 14/1 she looks a very solid each way play to me with the 8 runners set to line up. Concertista deserves a mention given she is 2-2 over fences so far. Her Festival record is very solid but I’ve still not forgiven her for getting chinned by Black Tears last year. She could have more to come so will likely be in the mix but I much prefer Elimay from a win point of view as she looks very solid to me.
Bet365 ITV Racing 4/1 Offer is perfect for backing our each way saver Vienna Court
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Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase
Cheltenham Friday 4.50 Elimay (best price 2/1) NEXT BEST
Vienna Court (best price 14/1) each way saver
Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle 5.30
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Trends
– 11/13 8 runs or less over hurdles
– 13/13 aged 5-7
– 13/13 carried 11-1 or more
– 7/12 ran in graded race last time out
– 6/8 had ran over further
– 2/10 rated lower than 139
– Mullins has won 4 of 11
Race Live Stream
ITV racing finishes before this race so bet365’s live streaming is great to watch the last 2 races on each day of the festival.
Stream every race at Cheltenham here
You will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Geo location and live streaming rules apply.
Cheltenham 5.30 Hollow Games (7/1)
Looked a nice prospect winning both bumpers and then winning first two starts over hurdles; solid run behind Ginto and Grand Jury at Naas and again hard to fault behind Minella Cocooner at Leopardstown; sure to go well.
Cheltenham 5.30 Grand Jury (16/1)
Well backed to make a winning start over hurdles at Punchestown and then bumped into Ginto at Naas; form ties in closely with Hollow Games and likely better than he showed at Leopardstown; good chance he’ll bounce back.
Cheltenham 5.30 Freedom To Dream (25/1)
Defied big odds to make a winning start over hurdles at Punchestown before chasing home Eric Bloodaxe at Limerick which was a good run; Leopardstown form ties in with my two earlier selections; looks a bit overpriced.
This is a race that is usually won by horses near the top of the market and this is very much my thinking with my first two picks especially with classier horses coming to the fore after Galopin Des Champs won it last year. My first pick is HOLLOW GAMES who was 5/5 under rules before running twice in Grade 1s finishing 3rd twice. The horses in-front of him in those races were favoured for big races this week and he the booking of Jordan Gainford just enhances his chances.
His form ties in well with GRAND JURY who will be suited by this race now back down in trip. His 2nd to Ginto looks solid and you would think he was ran at the Dublin Racing Festival to get his mark as he was held up and never really put into the race. That has now become a popular way to get a mark and he looks a good prospect off of 141 and hold-up horses do very well in this.
This is always a race I like to go for one at a bigger price to end the festival with a bang and FREEDOM TO DREAM fits the bill. He had good form behind Appreciate It before getting injured. He won his first run back at Punchestown before running a big race behind Eric Bloodaxe in a Grade 2. They ran him at the Dublin Racing Festival to get his mark of 135 and I have a feeling he has a lot more to come and is overpriced.
Langer Dan is the danger after his run in 2nd last year and comes here without the Imperial Cup run. At a massive price Party Business could run very well if getting in.
Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys‘ Handicap Hurdle
Cheltenham Friday 5.30 Hollow Games (best price 7/1)
Freedom To Dream (best price 25/1)
Cheltenham Festival Day 4 Selections ADD ALL TO BET365 BET SLIP
Triumph 1.30 Vauban NAP
County Hurdle 2.10 West Cork
Albert Bartlett 2.50 Hillcrest
Gold Cup 3.30 Minella Indo
Hunters’ Chase 4.10 Billaway
Mares’ Chase 4.50 Elimay NEXT BEST
Martin Pipe 5.30 Hollow Games
Cheltenham Festival Daily Double
The Daily Double consists of both the NAP and NB and is a great way of covering our two best bets on day 4 of the Cheltenham Festival to try and maximise profit.
Cheltenham Festival Day 4 Lucky 15
Gold Cup Day! It’s the fourth and final day of the Cheltenham Festival and we have another Lucky 15. We recommend backing this each way given the odds and we’d only need a couple of winners/ some places to make a decent return.
Cheltenham Festival Day 4 Lucky 15
Cheltenham 2.10 West Cork
Cheltenham 2.50 Hillcrest
Cheltenham 3.30 Minella Indo
Cheltenham 5.30 Hollow Games