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Cheltenham Festival Lucky 15

Day 1 at Cheltenham Festival looks a great day of racing and hopefully my lucky 15 can make it even better. We have 4 Grade 1s on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival including Constitution Hill looking to put up another massive performance in the Champion Hurdle.

My Cheltenham lucky 15 features some of the key races including the Supreme Novices' Hurdle where Facile Vega bids to bounce back to form. Honeysuckle will also run her last race at the Cheltenham Festival in the Mares' Hurdle

I have tips for every race at the festival plus my NAP of the Day, on my Cheltenham Festival tips page.

Bet365 have their Super Boost on 1 horse per day at the festival and the prices going to be a fair bit bigger than they normal. They are live each day from 10am so check the latest big priced boost on the link below.

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Cheltenham Festival Day 1 Lucky 15
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Cheltenham
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13:30 - Tuesday (Supreme Nov Hurdle)
12
Il Etait Temps
T:
Willie Mullins
J:
Danny Mullins
6/1
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Form -
5-4121
Age -
5
Weight -
11-7
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Cheltenham
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14:50 - Tuesday (Ultima Handicap)
10
Corach Rambler
T:
Lucinda Russell
J:
Derek Fox
7/1
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Form -
4U1-54
Age -
9
Weight -
11-5
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Cheltenham
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16:10 - Tuesday (Mares' Hurdle)
6
Marie’s Rock
T:
Nicky Henderson
J:
Nico De Boinville
3/1
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Form -
P11-11
Age -
8
Weight -
11-5
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Cheltenham
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16:50 - Tuesday (Boodles Handicap)
8
Bad
T:
Ben Pauling
J:
Rachael Blackmore
9/1
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Form -
2-21
Age -
4
Weight -
10-10
PAYS 1975/1
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Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
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Cheltenham
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13:30 - Tuesday
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Trends
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23 of the last 26 winners won their last race.
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8 of the last 10 winners were trained by Mullins and Henderson.
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6 of the past 10 winner won a Grade 1 on their last start.
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9 of the last 10 winners went off at a single figure price.

What a race to kick-off the Cheltenham Festival with Facile Vega on a redemption mission after blowing out last time round. Will he win this, he could well do but is too short with questions to answer. His stablemate IL ETAIT TEMPS looks great value each-way after taking the Tattersalls Ireland Novice hurdle ahead of Facile Vega. That race is a key form line for this race with 4 of the last 10 winners coming from it. It was run at a really fast pace as this race usually is and I think he is underrated due to everyone concentrating on his popular stablemate. He will go very well again and looks solid each-way bet.

Facile Vega is the main danger if back to his best after he was found to be lame after his last run. It's a fairly quick turnaround so I just can’t have him at the prices despite his obvious class. He could also get taken on up-front again which would leave Paul Townend a few decisions to make. Marine Nationale is held in the highest regard by Barry Connell but he would be bucking plenty of trends coming here off a break since early December. He is a classy sort but won’t want too much rain beforehand. Tahmuras looks best of the British but has a fair bit to find on figures. High Definition was class on the flat but would only feature if sorting his jumping out.

12
Il Etait Temps
T:
Willie Mullins
J:
Danny Mullins
6/1
Add To Bet Slip
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Form -
5-4121
Age -
5
Weight -
11-7
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Ultima Handicap Chase
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Cheltenham
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14:50 - Tuesday
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Trends
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10 of the last 13 winners ran at Cheltenham this season.
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9 of the past 11 winners wore headgear.
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5 of the last 9 winners were novices.
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Only 2 Irish trained winners in the last 54 races.

This is a race that is usually run at a frantic gallop and you really need to see out the extended 3 mile trip here. I was on CORACH RAMBLER last year and he is only 6lb higher here with a season tailored towards this race. He game from so far back last year but when he hit the hill he just took off and won easily in the end. This doesn’t look as good as last years race and he is the right favourite and the one to beat.

Into Overdrive has been a favourite of mine this season with two wins and a narrow defeat to L’Homme Presse looking solid form. If it isn’t too soft for him he will be a danger to all. The Irish have an awful record in the race but Fastorslow and The Goffer look like improvers and could go well. Happygolucky is a horse I backed in this 2 years ago finishing 2nd, with first time cheekpieces he could outrun his odds.

10
Corach Rambler
T:
Lucinda Russell
J:
Derek Fox
7/1
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Form -
4U1-54
Age -
9
Weight -
11-5
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Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle
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Cheltenham
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16:10 - Tuesday
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Trends
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13 of the last 15 winners won against geldings.
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12 of the last 15 winners were trained in Ireland.
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1 of the last 8 winners went off favourite.
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Only Quevega has won this aged over 7 years old.

The Mare’s Hurdle always provides an exciting finish and last year was no different with MARIE’S ROCK came flying home to win nicely. I am so glad she is running in this race over the Stayers’ Hurdle. It looks the right decision as she isn’t sure to stay the 3 mile trip on soft ground with this trip looking ideal. She want under the radar in last years race going of at 18/1 but has thrived over the last 2 years and will take some beating here.

As I was fully preparing for Marie’s Rock to go up in trip I had sided with BRANDY LOVE as my play in this race as she looks a big price based on her Grade 1 win at Fairyhouse last season where she routed Love Envoi by 8 lengths. She clearly needed the run after getting beat by Queens Brook giving her a lot of weight that day. She will be much better here especially going left handed and I have to have a small bet on here each-way.

Honeysuckle and Epatante swerve the Champion Hurdle this year after finishing 1-2 in that race last year. Honeysuckle has won this before and stays the trip but at the age of 9 she does seem to have dropped off a bit. She will be popular leading up to the race as everyone will latch onto her and I don’t fully trust her to be at her brilliant best at a shorter price. Epatante would have been closer to her in the Champion Hurdle if she didn’t fluff the last but I do think she is best at 2 miles and might not be at her best on softer ground at this trip. Echoes In Rain is another I think will go well, she was inconvenienced by a faller last year and could come home strongly and run a place.

6
Marie’s Rock
T:
Nicky Henderson
J:
Nico De Boinville
3/1
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Form -
P11-11
Age -
8
Weight -
11-5
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Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
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Cheltenham
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16:50 - Tuesday
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Trends
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9 of the last 12 winners weighted between 10 stone 6lb and 11 stone 5lb.
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12 of the last 12 winners had at least 2 runs over 1m7f-2m1f.
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8 of the last 12 winners were rated between 125 and 134.
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1 of the last 12 winners were favourites or joint favourites, only 3 of 12 top 3 in the betting.

Tekao has been all the rage for this since finishing an encouraging third behind Gala Marceau and Lossiemouth at the Dublin Racing Festival last month but favourites have a shocking record in this and I think there might be value in opposing. He does have the potential to be a Grade 1 horse further down the line but I just think at the prices I’m happy to look elsewhere.

BAD has been a bit of a talking horse himself and a Cheltenham winner would cap off a fine season for trainer Ben Pauling. This French recruit won impressively at Bordeaux when last seen back in November last year but he looks a shrewd purchase for connections and an opening mark of 126 may well prove extremely lenient. Rachael Blackmore has been booked and his trainer has kept no secret about what he thinks of his handicap mark. He feels he could have plenty in hand and he is a straightforward individual who jumps well.

Byker has to be mentioned as one of the main dangers for Charles Byrnes as he impressed winning at Naas before finishing third behind my selection Sir Allen last time. He looks well handicapped as a result and should be bang in the mix. Risk Belle fell at Leopardstown and is hard to weigh up as a result having chased home Lossiemouth twice before that. She is another one worth noting in a wide open renewal as expected.

8
Bad
T:
Ben Pauling
J:
Rachael Blackmore
9/1
Add To Bet Slip
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Form -
2-21
Age -
4
Weight -
10-10
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