FOOTBALL TIPS
Cheltenham Festival Day 4 Tips
The final day of the Cheltenham 2023 and lets hope it is better than day 3 with so many fancied horses getting well beaten. I am optimistic with some of my strongest fancies on Gold Cup day.
The Gold Cup looks an absolute cracker with potential superstar Gallopin Des Champs a strong favourite but we have seen money for last years winner A Plus Tard. If it is really testing it could be anyones race and I am really looking forward to it.
My accas for day 4 are a800/1 Lucky 15, 8/1 Double and 550/1 EW Double all of which can be found at the bottom of the page below my day 4 tips.
Bet365 have their final Super Boost on Friday where they will boost a horse each day ato a price far bigger than they normally are. I know what horse I hope it is (it might be in the big race). They go live each day from 10am so check the latest big priced boost on the link below.
This is a race I have really been looking forward to and while Gala Marceau shouldn’t be entirely ignored I do think this will come down to the top pair in the betting. Obviously Lossiemouth saw her unbeaten streak ended by Gala Marceau at the Dublin Racing Festival but she suffered a tough trip that day and with a smoother passage should reverse that form. Paul Townend rides and will be looking to put it right but I’m keen to oppose with BLOOD DESTINY who has looked extremely exciting. He is 2-2 since coming over from France having won at Cork back in December and then followed up by no less than 18 lengths at Fairyhouse. That form has been franked since with Nusret winning the Adonis and the fifth Jazzy Matty winning the Boodles earlier in the week. Even the horse than finished last Your Honor has gone in impressively next time out. He will need to jump slicker but is improving all the time and looks sure to run a big race under Patrick Mullins.
Lossiemouth does look the danger but she had a tough enough race the last day and this might be coming soon enough. Gala Marceau needs to settle better and might not be as well suited by this test. Zenta was heavily backed when winning at Fairyhouse but made a bad mistake at the second last and last and will need to jump much better here to get involved. Ascending was only fourth in that race at Leopardstown last month behind Gala Marceau and Lossiemouth and has plenty of ground to make up on that. A big field for this but it clearly lacks strength in depth.
This race has been dominated by two trainers over the last few years, not much surprise with one being Willie Mullins but the other is Dan Skelton. I really like his runner in this race, PEMBROKE who has form of 112 in his last 3 runs with two really nice wins in novice events before running well in the Ballymore trial which was a Grade 2 event here at Cheltenham. His mark of 136 looks really lenient based on that run and best of all he has won on good to soft ground and heavy ground. He fits the profile of previous winners of this race and looks a cracking each-way bet.
At a big price PATH D’OROUX looks a nice bet after especially in the softer conditions. He won his maiden on debut before being upped to Grade 1s where he went off a 5/1 shot before pulling up behind Marine Nationale. They clearly thought a lot of him and he showed how good he could be giving weight away in a novice event last time and looks well weighted here.
Willie Mullins will obviously have a big say here and he has ran horses that have gone on to run at Grade 1 level in this the last few years including the top class State Man last year. Hunters Yarn is a danger to all but does carry a bit more weight than some of Willie’s winners. Filey Bay is a good horse and is well weighted but might need quicker ground.
Another race I really can’t wait to see and CORBETTS CROSS looks one to keep firmly on side. He first caught my eye beating a good horse in Seabank Bistro at Limerick in a maiden hurdle back in December. Stepped up to this trip for the first time at Fairyhouse in January he ran out a smooth winner going 6 lengths clear at the finish. He relished the trip and looks to have stamina in abundance. He switched yards to Emmet Mullins having been purchased by JP MCManus and dropped back to 2 miles still had the class to pick up Found A Fifty and win at Naas last month. He will be spot on for this now and back up in trip should always be in his comfort zone here. The ground is perfect and he is one of my more confident selections of the day with Mark Walsh in the saddle.
Three Card Brag clearly stays well and impressed going clear from Spanish Harlem at Fairyhouse. He has more to come so should run well but I’d much prefer the selection. Given the amount of places on offer I did think it was worth having an each way saver on FAVORI DE CHAMPDOU who has won his last 3 over hurdles. He had a relentless way of going when beating Letsbeclearaboutit at Limerick and if improving again could run better than his odds suggest. Hiddenvalley Lake went down narrowly to Monty’s Star at Clonmel but still possesses plenty of potential and is another one I expect to get involved and run into a place at least.
As always a fascinating renewal of the Cheltenham Gold Cup and one that very much revolves around GALOPIN DES CHAMPS who is on his own path to Cheltenham Festival redemption after coming down after the last in the Turners last year. He has been faultless since winning impressively at Fairyhouse and then going 2-2 this season slamming Stattler at the DRF last month. He doesn’t look to have any issue with the trip with Townend struggling to pull him up at Leopardstown and looks the one they all have to beat. He has really learned how to be a racehorse now and switches off beautifully in behind so if they try and go hard early that will only play to his strengths and if there is no pace he can go forward too so his versatility is another huge positive.
With the way Thursday went at Cheltenham with quite a few very good horses not running their races I am going to have a saver on AHOY SENOR. He isn’t always easy to catch right but his win the track last time was impressive and he seemed to thrive on hill on the softer ground. He ran a cracker at the Festival last year behind L’Home Presse who I would fancy here if running and Ahoy Senor might be a tad overpriced.
A Plus Tard was one of the most impressive winners in years when winning last years renewal and ready for this after a far from ideal prep he will be a massive danger. The De Bromhead yard are in form so you never know. Bravemansgame won the King George but was pulled out last year on softer ground which is a slight worry and I am happy to take him on. Minella Indo and Protektorat are decent prices and can see them placing at least if its a test.
It was great to see BILLAWAY win this last year having finished second in it twice previously. He was cruelly denied just a short head by Porlock Bay so nobody could begrudge him staying on strongly to get up on the line from Winged Leader last year. He backed that up beating Vaucelet (favourite for the race) at Punchestown and is being a bit overlooked in the betting. He would have needed the run on return at Thurles and then got on top nicely at Naas last time. He looks sure to run another big race and if he is within striking distance away from the last expect him to be powering home.
The other one I like is FAMOUS CLERMONT who barely broke sweat to win readily again at Haydock last time and I can see him being well suited by this test. He has a high cruising speed and should lay down a challenge at some point. The favourite Vaucelet beat Dorking Cock last time which is strong form and given his lightly raced profile with more to come should be bang there. Bob And Co is capable of giving Harry Derham a big run too but he is prone to a mistake and that cost him last time. He hasn’t been seen since but might run well at an each way price.
This looks a two-horse race this year with Allegorie De Vassy and Impervious locking horns for the first time. The former has been impressive since coming over from France going 2-2 over hurdles and then winning both chase starts hard on the bridle. She is yet to be tested and does have a slight tendency to jump out to her right which obviously wouldn’t be ideal around Cheltenham. She has a lot of potential so shouldn’t be overlooked but I am keen on IMPERVIOUS getting the better of the argument. She has gone 3-3 over fences and stayed on powerfully in testing ground to beat Journey With Me at Punchestown. That is rock solid form and I can see her relishing the Cheltenham hill.
Hard to imagine the front pair not firing but even so Jeremys Flame does deserve a mention as she is battle hardened and did impress thrashing Zambella at Huntingdon back in January. She has been put away since and connections will be hopeful she can acquit herself well here. Zambella perhaps wasn’t at her best that day and she could run well from an each way perspective but she’d need it to all go her way as once her jumping comes under pressure she doesn’t find a great deal. Elimay obviously won this last year but doesn’t arrive in the same form having suffered a heavy defeat behind Magic Daze at Naas last time.
Gordon Elliott always targets this race and COOL SURVIVOR must have a great shout. He impressed winning at Punchestown and then followed up at Cork before bumping into Hiddenvalley Lake just before Christmas. They have likely always had this race in mind and I thought he ran an encouraging race without being hard pressed behind Good Land at the Dublin Racing Festival last month. He stayed on well and will be spot on for this now. I feel he could be much better than what he has shown so far so now handicapping should run huge.
Big prices often pop up in this so I’ve backed a couple at double-figure odds. I like IRISH HILL for Paul Nicholls who has really got his act together lately. He beat the useful Itso Fury at Taunton and then followed up at Fakenham before really impressing at Ascot last time. He should keep improving for a while yet and an 8lb rise looks fair. He will be suited by a good gallop and will likely give us a good run for our money. NO ORDINARY JOE let backers down last time beaten a long way behind Aucunrisque at Newbury but his win over Big Boy Bobby prior to that caught the eye and he could be capable at juicy odds. Plenty of dangers which include Spanish Harlem, Imagine and Might I.
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