ITV Racing Saturday Tips and Previews
THE AYR GOLD CUP AND THE MILL REEF TAKE CENTRE STAGE ON SATURDAY! Racing live on ITV from Ayr and Newbury and I have it all covered as always.
Make sure you scroll right down to the bottom to see any multiples we are placing. These can be added direct to your bet365 bet slip.
ITV Racing Saturday Schedule
1.15 Ayr Virgin Bet Daily Price Boosts Handicap (Class 2) 1m
1.30 Newbury Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes (Group 3) 5f
1.50 Ayr Virgin Bet Daily Extra Places Doonside Cup Stakes (Listed Race) 1m2f
2.05 Newbury Dubai Duty Free Autumn Cup Handicap (Class 2) 1m51/2f
2.25 Ayr Virgin Bet Ayr Silver Cup Handicap (Class 2) 6f
2.40 Newbury Dubai Duty Free Handicap (Class 2) 1m2f
3.00 Ayr Virgin Bet Best Odds Daily Firth Of Clyde (Group 3) 6f
3.15 Newbury Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) 6f
3.35 Ayr Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup Handicap (Class 2) 6f
There are quite a few in with a chance here but I do like ISLA KAI for Nigel Tinkler. The step back up to a mile did the trick at Ripon last month and just 4lb higher here he should have a great chance of following up. He has been rated higher in the past so should cope with this mark and likely under positive tactics again should also be well positioned.
The danger looks to be Koy Koy who looked better than ever on AW debut winning at Wolverhampton last time. He is 6lb higher and back up in grade but still needs to be respected in his current groove. Revich clearly isn’t the most straightforward but he is another one that should get involved as he was only beaten 2 lengths into third at Chester when last seen.
I know we haven’t seen SENSE OF DUTY for some 455 days but she looked seriously exciting as a 3yo completing a four-timer upped to Group level in the Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle on final start. She showed a ruthless turn of foot to put some good horses away and she is open to plenty more improvement on her belated return having only had a handful of starts to date. If ready to go she should win.
Raasel is a decent yardstick at this level and he shouldn’t be underestimated. He impressed winning at Haydock and then went down less than a length to a nice type in Rogue Lightning last week. If this doesn’t come too soon he will run his race again. Nymphadora wasn’t at her best in the Nunthorpe last month but this is easier so she is also noted.
I did like My Prospero for this initially but with that colt now a non runner it looks a great chance for ROYAL RHYME to go in again. This Lope De Vega colt has won 2 of his last 3 now and is really progressing judging by that 6 and a half length demolition at Goodwood last month. He loves soft ground so with plenty of rain in the forecast he should get ideal conditions too.
In terms of a danger to the favourite it is probably as the market suggests in Pride Of America. He improved for a wind op winning 2 of his last 3 before finishing an excellent third at Goodwood. Freshened up he should run his race and ask a few questions of the selection. At a price Luckin Brew also has a squeak but it is a bit worrying we haven’t seen her for the best part of a year.
With just four starts to his name LAAFI is hard for the handicapper to weigh up and as a result the bookies are also cautious. He had quite a big reputation as a 2yo and impressed getting up late to win at Nottingham on final start, needing every yard. He was pitched into a Listed race on return at Lingfield and wasn’t disgraced in fourth and then was thrown in at the deep end on handicap debut at Royal Ascot. I would put a line through that and dropped 2lb and stepping up to 1m5f we could see a much improved performance. He is still armed with a lot of potential and I think he is overpriced.
Valsad caught the eye going down a neck to El Jasor here before improving to win at Southwell last time. With potential for better he looks the danger. Sea King is also respected if bouncing back.
The Silver Cup is always a tricky race to get right and that has been reflected in the prices of winners in recent years. If you take the last decade it has produced 16/1, 33/1, 9/1, 18/1, 20/1, 11/1, 12/1, 18/1, 25/1 and 14/1 winners so best to look away from the top of the market. I like APLOMB at around 14/1. His losing run has mounted up but he often threatens at taking out a big pot and he ran well in this last year to finish sixth off an 8lb higher mark. He remains lightly raced for his age and the softer ground could suit too. He was beaten less than a length at Goodwood last time and could go close.
Obviously tons of dangers likely headed by Wobwobwob who was a good second to Rhoscolyn at Goodwood and then backed that up finishing third to Sophia’s Starlight at Ripon. If the ground deteriorates he would have major claims. Danzan has won over C&D in the past and he has knocked on the door the last twice so is another one that could get involved if bringing his best.
With the ground testing this could be a good opportunity for the likeable BALANCE PLAY to quickly get back on track. He looked a handicapper going places winning easily at Chester and then following up at Goodwood which looks solid form. Things didn’t work out when well backed at York but this slower ground suits much better and with further improvement to come he should get back on track.
Totnes is on a hat-trick after winning at Chelmsford and then following up comfortably back on turf at Chepstow last month. The worry is she has been hiked up a further 8lb and could also find this deep ground against her. Le Mans is also untested on the ground but has won 2 from 3 now and could also enter the reckoning.
I was really impressed with how well Blue Point filly RAQIYA won at Haydock last time. She always travelled best and merely had to be shaken up to go clear and assert. She has won 2 from 3 now and looks ready for this step up in grade. This will definitely be tougher as she is facing a much better calibre of filly now but she is also armed with a lot of potential and should justify favouritism and complete the hat-trick.
Dorothy Lawrence is a leggy filly and she still looks to be improving. She only went down a short head at Salisbury last time and a similar run to that would likely have her bang there. The issue is she likes to go off the front and there could be a few threatening for the lead. Great Generation is 2-2 and can improve again so also has to be feared.
Sakheer justified favouritism in this last year for Roger Varian but in general they don’t have the best recent record in this so I’m going to oppose Mister Sketch. He was so impressive at Salisbury but this ground is going to ask a different question. I prefer SEVEN QUESTIONS for George Scott. This horse has improved all season and looked good bringing up the hat-trick at Leicester last month. He has been beaten twice since but run well on both occasions and only missed a head at Kempton last time. He won’t mind the ground and might be the one galloping out best when the others have cried enough.
Array was behind the selection at Kempton last time but has only had 4 starts and if improving again could be the biggest danger. Haatem is another one that could run well but he is untried on this ground so needs to prove he can handle it as well. Red Zone Hero was impressive at Doncaster but this is a much sterner test.
A cracking renewal of the Ayr Gold Cup and I’m hoping it can be JUAN LES PINS day in the sun (or rain). He was desperately unlucky in this last year finishing third behind Summerghand. He was hampered and I think it cost him the race. He is 6lb higher this time around but hasn’t put a foot wrong all season and deserves to win a big pot now. His third in the Wokingham was a huge effort and again he went down less than a length to Commanche Falls at York last time. Hopefully they don’t get too much rain as I’m really confident of him taking this.
Orazio was impressive beating Probe at Newmarket before following up easily at Ascot. He didn’t give his best at Royal Ascot though where he was behind the selection and again failed to fire when well backed once more at Goodwood. He could still be capable of better and is feared but he has become a bit expensive to follow in recent starts. Summerghand would have to be in with a chance of defending his crown as he is thriving and runs off the same mark as last year. Rohaan is another one capable if getting the gaps at the right time.
Some decent racing to get stuck into on Saturday and I have selected this Win Treble to try and land us some nice profit. All 3 should be hard to beat with a bit of luck. Pays 20/1!