FOOTBALL TIPS
Cheltenham Festival Day 1 Tips
The wait is finally over! The Cheltenham roar is just moments away, all the talking is done and it’s time for action. The curtain-raiser is a race I have some great memories in over the years and you can’t beat kicking off the week with a winner. With Ballyburn heading to the longer race it is more open than recent years but for me that makes it even more exciting.
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With Ballyburn definitely heading for the longer race MYSTICAL POWER would be a strong selection to win the Supreme. This son of Galileo is still unbeaten and while he wouldn’t have the typical profile having made his debut at Galway back in the summer he was visually very impressive at Punchestown in the Moscow Flyer and that is usually a good pointer. I loved the way he quickly put distance between himself and the rest and he is only going to improve again. This strong pace will suit and I think he’ll be the one finishing best up the Cheltenham hill.
Stablemate Tullyhill is likely to be ridden by Paul Townend and will probably go off favourite as a result. He will try and make all but I don’t think that’ll be easy and I still have one or two doubts over his jumping. Firefox beat Ballyburn at Fairyhouse but was just the sharper, fitter horse on the day. He didn’t seem to stay up in trip at Naas and while the vibes are right now I have my doubts over him especially at this track. SLADE STEEL would be my idea of a danger as he was progressing well prior to bumping into Ballyburn and still has more to come.
Willie Mullins won this last year with El Fabiolo and he certainly holds the key again with the front 3 in the betting. Surprisingly Gaelic Warrior lines up and is the pick of Paul Townend despite unshipping him when well held at the Dublin Racing Festival behind Fact To File. He is probably the most talented horse in the field but he jumps out to his right and that could ultimately prove costly here. I prefer stablemate HUNTERS YARN under Daryl Jacob. He did well over hurdles and is arguably unlucky not to be 2-2 over fences. He took a tumble with the race in the bag on chase debut at Fairyhouse but quickly got back on track last time winning impressively. He lacks experience but is unexposed and could improve loads yet.
Given the make-up of the race I’m also going to back QUILIXIOS for Henry De Bromhead. This horse is 2 from 3 over fences and looked very good over this trip at Naas last time. He jumps well and will be ridden on the pace so should have a great chance if getting into a nice rhythm. He is around 7/1 in the betting and that looks more than fair so worth backing each way. Il Etait Temps beat Found A Fifty at the DRF last month and is respected but you’d have to worry about his form around Cheltenham. Jpr One also has a squeak but he’d have to avoid errors just to have a chance of being involved in the finish.
The Irish obviously have a terrible record in the Ultima so it is quite interesting to see recent JP McManus purchase Meetingofthewaters and the Gordon Elliott-trained The Goffer top the betting. I think both could be opposable here and the one that I keep coming back to is CHIANTI CLASSICO for Kim Bailey. This horse was progressive over hurdles before struggling in the Albert Bartlett at last year’s Festival. He reappeared over fences at Chepstow back in October and won his first two starts in good style finding plenty to prevail at Ascot. He was only beaten a couple of lengths by Flegmatik at Kempton when last seen and has been put away for this since. His mark looks workable and he could easily improve again.
With the extra places available I’m also going to take a chance on MONBEG GENIUS for Jonjo O’Neill. He shaped to me as though his trainer had this race in mind when down the field at Kelso and his run when third at Newbury back in December was much more like it. If you couple that with his excellent third in this race last year behind Corarch Rambler I think he is nailed on to run a big race again. I’m surprised he is as big as 14/1 as he should be bang there swinging in. Stumptown ran a big race in the Kim Muir last year and impressed winning here when last seen so he is definitely one of the dangers. Weveallbeencaught is another one with an interesting profile.
It was such a shame to hear the news that reigning Champion Hurdler Constitution Hill was ruled out for Nicky Henderson. The horse clearly wasn’t right in that racecourse gallop at Kempton and time was against him sadly. It now looks an obvious chance for STATE MAN to have his day in the sun. His sole defeat in his last 11 starts came at the hands of Constitution Hill in this last year and with that horse out he is impossible to oppose. He has done nothing wrong this season beating Impaire Et Passe and Bob Olinger the last twice and granted usual luck in-running he should get the job done.
It is quite an interesting race past the favourite with Irish Point taking his chance here instead of the Stayers. He is a horse I like and he should run well but he might be the only horse that actually tries to beat the favourite and that might end up leaving him vulnerable in the closing stages. IBERICO LORD could be decent value to pick up second in the without market as he was a decent winner of the Greatwood over C&D on reappearance and then bounced back from a poor showing at Ascot to win impressively at Newbury last month. He is on an upward trajectory and I can see him running a big race.
Willie Mullins is responsible for 5 of the 13 runners and it looks a straight shootout between his best two mares in the market in LOSSIEMOUTH and Ashroe Diamond. The former was mega impressive on reappearance slamming Love Envoi by nearly 10 lengths. I don’t see any issue with her stepping up slightly in trip and I think she’ll win this comfortably. She has such a high cruising speed I expect her to come there cantering and granted no hard luck stories she should reward favourite backers.
Ashroe Diamond has a likeable attitude and she hasn’t done much wrong herself making a winning return at Doncaster. She is clearly very talented herself and should finish second but I just don’t see her having the gears to trouble the favourite who could win this and then go for the Champion Hurdle next year. Of the rest Marie’s Rock is a tricky ride but she might be the one to pick up the pieces for third but Lantry Lady also has a bit of potential and is an even bigger price.
The Fred Winter or Boodles as it is known now is always a wide open contest so no surprise to see it 6/1 bar the field at the time of writing. I am keen on one in here though in the shape of BATMAN GIRAC for Willie Mullins. This horse finished behind Majborough on debut in France before winning impressively at Compiegne second time out. He made a low-key start for this yard when down the field at Fairyhouse but then caught the eye running on strongly for a promising fourth behind Kala Conti at Leopardstown when last seen. That form has obviously been franked since with Kargese winning a Grade 1 at the DRF since and even the seventh Miss Manzor and tenth Eagle Fang have both won since. He can improve and has gone under the radar somewhat.
Like most of the handicaps this week there are plenty of places on offer so I’m also going to back OSE PARTIR for Martin Brassil. This horse won on debut on the Flat in France and while he hasn’t shown much for this yard so far his debut run over hurdles at Galway showed he has ability and a strongly run race like this could really suit him. He should be well handicapped and he comes out well on the trends too and is still available at 14/1 which seems overpriced. Tons of dangers likely headed by Milan Tino who was third behind Triumph favourite Sir Gino at this track when last seen. He jumps well and should run a big race. Ndaawi is another one I expect to go well but no juice in his price.
The more I looked at this race the more confident I grew regarding the chances of CORBETTS CROSS. This horse was running a massive race in the Albert Bartlett last year before running out at the last and it is no surprise to see him begin to thrive now sent over fences and up in trip. He was a gutsy winner beating Three Card Brag at Fairyhouse back in December and has had excuses since. He bumped into the talented Grangeclare West at Leopardstown and then was brought down at Fairyhouse last month. He will be fresh for this race and is open to improvement so is one to keep firmly on side.
Obviously Embassy Gardens has done nothing wrong since going over fences making it a perfect 2-2 at Naas when last seen. My issue with him is he has always looked in his comfort zone and I just wonder will he find when the chips are down as there is bound to be a point in this race where he needs to fight. If his rhythm is disrupted will he be as deadly? I have my doubts which makes the selection a strong play. Three Card Brag doesn’t go now so Salvador Ziggy is probably best of the rest but he does have a bit to prove after that run in America.
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