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Aintree Day 2Tips

The top class action keeps coming and it could be a big day for trainer Nicky Henderson who has Jonbon in the Melling Chase as well as unbeaten hurdler Shanagh Bob in the Sefton. We also get a look at the Grand National fences as Bill Baxter looks to defend his Topham crown.

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Mildmay Novices’ Chase
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AINTREE
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13:45 - FRIDAY
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Trends
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The past 10 winners finished first or second at the Cheltenham Festival
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21 of the past 23 winners had run at least 4 times over fences
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12 of the past 14 winners were aged 6 or 7
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No winner this century was unbeaten over fences

It was very much gambled landed for INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN at the Cheltenham Festival last month and he relished the step up in trip to win impressively. He is completely unexposed as a stayer over fences and it is no surprise to see him pitched in at the top level off the back of that performance. He is open to plenty more improvement and I’m keen to keep him on side here and going forward.

Chianti Classico was a gutsy winner of the Ultima having jumped for fun and he should give David Bass a bold sight out in front again. Iroko could only manage fifth in the Turners but he shouldn’t be completely ignored either in a decent renewal.

5
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Inothewayurthinkin
Trainer
Gavin Patrick Cromwell, Ireland
Jockey
M. P. Walsh
5/2
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Form -
434-22391
Age -
6
Weight -
11-7
Draw -
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William Hill Handicap Hurdle
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AINTREE
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14:20 - FRIDAY
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Trends
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8 of the last 11 winners were aged between 5 and 6
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10 of the last 11 winners carried 11 stone 4 or less
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10 of the last 11 winners were rated 130 or higher
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1 of the last 11 winners were favourites

A fiercely competitive renewal with 22 heading to post. Things didn’t work out for THEATRE MAN at the Cheltenham Festival where he took an early fall but he has never looked like coming down in the past so I’m happy to draw a line through that. He runs here off a mark of just 133 and he must be well handicapped. If he can get into a better rhythm early then I think he has been overlooked in the betting at 11/1 at the time of writing.

Jango Baie hasn’t done much wrong and could easily improve enough to be a big player in this. I just think inexperience cost him at Kelso last time and if he steps forward again he will be the danger. Inthewaterside is another one that could improve again and get involved.

13
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Theatre Man
Trainer
Richard Bandey
Jockey
Harry Bannister
11/1
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Form -
2121-232F
Age -
8
Weight -
11-2
Draw -
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TrustATrader Top Novices’ Hurdle
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AINTREE
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14:55 - FRIDAY
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13 of the past 24 winners ran in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (9 of them finished in the first 4)
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The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle runner-up is 6 from 7 in the past 24 renewals
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21 of the past 24 winners were aged 5 or 6
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Willie Mullins is 0-5 since 2016

Despite Mullins not having the best record in this MYSTICAL POWER makes obvious appeal. He looked the winner of the Supreme before being edged out by the gutsy Slade Steel and I just think inexperience cost him that day. He is learning and improving all the time and with more to come should prove too good for this field.

Firefox was a place behind the selection at Cheltenham and looks the danger. He didn’t get the best run through and was slightly hampered but I can’t see him reversing the form. Dysart Enos suffered a setback so missed Cheltenham so hard to back her with any confidence.

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Mystical Power
Trainer
W. P. Mullins, Ireland
Jockey
M. P. Walsh
15/8
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Form -
1112
Age -
5
Weight -
11-7
Draw -
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Melling Chase
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AINTREE
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15:30 - FRIDAY
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Trends
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24 of the 32 winners had won or placed at the Grand National meeting previously
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15 of the past 17 winners had contested either the Queen Mother Champion Chase or Ryanair
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18 of the 23 winners this century returned at 5-1 or shorter
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Only 4 of the 32 winners skipped the Cheltenham Festival (but does include the last 2 winners)

I’m expecting the confidence to keep growing surrounding the chance of JONBON so the 5/2 might be worth taking now. Obviously a lot is going to depend on the form of Nicky Henderson but he is still an extremely talented chaser and he is unbeaten at the track winning here over hurdles and the Maghull Novices’ Chase here last year. He should be back to his best and if he avoids errors then he should win.

Protektorat looked primed for Cheltenham and ran out an impressive winner of the Ryanair. He could be the danger but he did have quite a tough race that day so hard to know if he’ll be in the same form. Envoi Allen was 4 lengths behind the latter last month but don’t rule out another big run from him either.

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Jonbon
Trainer
Nicky Henderson
Jockey
Nico de Boinville
5/2
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Form -
11211-112
Age -
8
Weight -
11-10
Draw -
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Topham Handicap Chase
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AINTREE
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16:05 - FRIDAY
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Trends
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7 of the last 11 winners were aged between 7 and 10
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11 of the last 11 winners were rated 132 or higher
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10 of the last 11 winners had at least 4 runs that season
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0 of the last 11 winners were favourites

I always love watching the Topham but from a betting perspective it can be quite a tough race to find the winner. I know favourites don’t have the best record but BILL BAXTER took so well to this course last year and just 1lb higher this time around could defend his crown. He hasn’t won since that day but he has come back down the weights as a result and this has likely been the plan.

Plenty of dangers likely headed by Shakem Up’arry who was a good winner of the Plate at the Cheltenham Festival last month and is on a hat-trick now. He has run twice at this venue before and ran creditably both times so must go well. Kandoo Kid is the other one I can see getting competitive and being well suited by this test.

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Bill Baxter
Trainer
Warren Greatrex
Jockey
James Bowen
4/1
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Form -
F11-38486
Age -
8
Weight -
10-7
Draw -
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Sefton Novices’ Hurdle
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AINTREE
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16:40 - FRIDAY
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Trends
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19 of the 23 winners this century had won at least twice over hurdles
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17 of the past 18 winners were aged 6 or 7
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14 of the 23 winners this century skipped the Cheltenham Festival
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Only 1 winner this century had run in the Baring Bingham Novices’ Hurdle

Both The Jukebox Man and Dancing City have obvious form claims having finished second and third in the Albert Bartlett but that turned into a gruelling race and this is coming soon enough. It might be worth chancing SHANAGH BOB who comes here fresh after skipping Cheltenham. He has looked hugely exciting winning both starts over hurdles and with more to come could be the one to beat. I keep repeating myself but again a lot will depend on the form of the yard as if they have some big winners his price could collapse.

Of the rest Readin Tommy Wrong is surely better than what he showed last month and if bouncing back could have a say as his wins over Lisnagar Fortune and Ile Atlantique were promising. Croke Park still has potential too but he is another one that needs to put a bad run behind him.

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Shanagh Bob
Trainer
Nicky Henderson
Jockey
Nico de Boinville
9/2
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Form -
11
Age -
6
Weight -
11-8
Draw -
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Alder Hey Handicap Hurdle
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AINTREE
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17:15 - FRIDAY
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Trends
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8 of the last 11 winners were aged between 5 and 7
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4 of the last 11 winners had at least 1 previous run at Aintree
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8 of the last 11 winners were rated 130 or higher
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1 of the last 11 winners were favourites

Olly Murphy is in red-hot form and GO DANTE must have a chance of making it 3 wins from his last 4. He showed a great attitude to win the Imperial Cup at Sandown last month and he does so well in these big field handicaps. He is 5lb higher but could easily still have more to come and I think he has a great chance with Dylan Johnston claiming a valuable 5lb.

Maidenstreetprince is feared given who trains him so watch the market closely on that one. Skycutter looked good winning at Carlisle and didn’t shape badly in defeat when third in a valuable pot at Kelso last time. At a huge price Party Vibes is better than what she showed at Newbury and could bounce back and hit the frame.

3
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Go Dante
Trainer
Olly Murphy
Jockey
Dylan Johnston
5/1
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Form -
5418-6131
Age -
8
Weight -
11-13
Draw -
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Aintree Day 2 Tips DOUBLE
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Aintree Day 2 Tips LUCKY 15
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