FOOTBALL TIPS
Royal Ascot Day 2 Tips
I don’t think I’ve ever seen a day as competitive at Royal Ascot as this afternoon. Big fields and fiercely competitive racing so it should be fascinating to see how it materialises between punters and the bookies. I’m glad Inspiral goes for the Prince Of Wales’s as I think she is better over the longer trip nowadays. She locks horns with Auguste Rodin in what looks the race of the day. I’m also looking forward to seeing Illinois in the Queen’s Vase as he brings Ambiente Friendly form to the table.
With the prices on offer I’m keen to look away from the top of the market. The trends are largely against the market principals so I’ve backed two in the race both at 16/1. KASSAYA went down less than a length on debut at Salisbury but she was as green as anything and it was very much a first day at school. She quickly left that behind to win impressively at Nottingham and she could be a really nice prospect. The other one I like is BETTY CLOVER for Eve Johnson Houghton. She made a winning start and I’m convinced only a bad ride cost her next time and then she was impressive at Listed level at York. She has more to come as she has plenty of scope and she has gone under the radar a bit here.
Obviously tons of dangers (the story of the day) possibly headed by the favourite Make Haste. She won head in chest on debut and definitely falls into the ‘could be anything’ category so I won’t put you off too much. From a price perspective in a field packed full of so much talent though she is probably just about opposable. At a huge price (around 25/1) Maw Lam could go well as she is improving all the time and a better break from the stalls could see her involved.
Aidan O’Brien has won this eight times and he saddles four runners in a bid to win it again. The best of those and the pick of Ryan Moore is ILLINOIS and I think he’ll prove tough to beat. He looked like he probably needed the run when third at Leopardstown but up in trip improved on that to chase home Ambiente Friendly at Lingfield. That horse has obviously ran huge in The Derby since finding only City Of Troy too strong. The third Meydaan won at Goodwood too so it stacks up.
Highbury was behind Birdman on debut at Cork but improved to win impressively at Leopardstown and may well be able to give O’Brien a 1-2. Meydaan opposes again and showed a good attitude to prevail at Goodwood and ties in on that Lingfield form so shouldn’t be too far away either.
I know the betting has been chopping and changing between Rogue Millennium and LAUREL but I think it has it right now landing on the latter and she should prove tough to beat under Ryan Moore. She won 3 of her first 4 starts before finishing down the field in the Lockinge and if retaining her ability having been off the track for over a year she could have too much for them. Her win at Listed level at Kempton was quite exciting and it has to be interesting that they’ve persevered and kept her in training.
Rogue Millennium won this race last year springing a surprise and she is the danger but I expected more at the Curragh on return and so did the market. She is just looking a bit one paced nowadays and I’m not convinced by her overall profile. Royal Dress was unlucky behind Breege at Epsom but will probably get overbet as a result. DOOM was the one I thought was worth a saver for William Haggas. She was only beaten a length on return at the Curragh and back up to a mile could outrun her odds.
I’m hoping it was a good move from John and Thady Gosden to switch INSPIRAL to this race instead of the Queen Anne. She gets weight and I think this trip suits her much better these days. She was so impressive in the Breeders’ Cup swooping late to get up and with that reappearance run under her belt when fourth in the Lockinge she will be spot on for this now. I can see confidence growing come post time and she might even challenge Auguste Rodin for favouritism as the pair definitely look the ones to focus on.
Auguste Rodin has been rather hit and miss in his career but ran to a decent level without winning at the Curragh last month. He was beat 3 lengths by White Birch and if building on that will be the danger but his one run at this track last year is a bit of a worry.
The Royal Hunt Cup is always a tricky puzzle to solve and it doesn’t look any easier this year with it being 10/1 the field at the time of writing. Again the trends suggest looking away from the top of the market but given I’m backing 3 in the race I do like SONNY LISTON who is nearer the top than the bottom. I backed him last year when he was beaten 2 lengths into second at 25/1 and he was back to his best winning on reappearance at Newbury. He carries top weight as a result but he could easily be a much stronger 5yo who could be capable of better again.
At a bigger price PEROTTO catches the eye for Roger Varian. He won 2 of his last 3 last season including a win here 10 months ago. He clocked a decent speed figure too and while he’ll need to bring his very best form and be ready to fire first time out I have seen bigger upsets happen. The stable form is another big positive and he has more going for him than most. The final one I’ve backed is DAYSOFOURLIVES for Marco Botti. He likes this track and has caught the eye going down just a head on reappearance at Newmarket and again running well up in trip last time. The drop back to a mile is ideal and he is clearly going to outrun his odds. Too many dangers to mention possibly headed by Metal Merchant who also has rock solid form to his name and is a C&D winner too.
It doesn’t get any easier I’m afraid so again I have backed 3 against the field as the prices on offer just look so generous. TWIRLING returned with an encouraging effort when third at Nottingham and improved again to beat a good yardstick in Roarin’ Success at Doncaster last month. A 5lb rise is more than fair and I think she remains well handicapped. She should get plenty of cover in this big field and with Ryan Moore booked should run a massive race. ELIM also catches the eye as being on a favourable mark and given Spencer rides this straight mile so well she has to be on my radar and a bet at 12/1.
Finally AZAHARA PALACE impressed me with how she ran down Indemnity at Leicester on return and with further improvement expected and this likely being run to suit she could also be one to get involved despite a 7lb rise. Plenty of dangers once more and Aurora Dawn could go well as she was denied a run in a race won by Wild Tiger at Goodwood and is double the price. Doha only missed a neck at Haydock and is another one back down in trip that should run well and get involved.
I always love watching the Windsor Castle as there is so much potential on show. I was really quite taken with SHADOW ARMY at York. He was slowly away and hampered at the start so for most 2yos making their debut that would be race over but he was professional with how he got himself back in the race and he came with a strong run to hit the front and hold on. He has been snapped up by Wathnan Racing since and is clearly quite an exciting horse. The runner-up Francisco’s Piece has won readily in France since to frank the form and even a couple of horses down the field have finished second next time out so it definitely has substance.
Treasure Isle looks the obvious danger for Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore. He was beat 2 lengths on debut but left that behind to win at Naas and will likely keep improving with experience. He stayed on well to win last time but I worry if he has the gears to live with the selection. I can see my pick getting a break and then him closing at the line but it might just come too late. Of the rest Celtic Chieftain made a winning start for Aidan O’Brien and also looks to have a bright future.
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