FOOTBALL TIPS
Royal Ascot Day 3 Tips
I’m really looking forward to the Ribblesdale on Thursday at Royal Ascot as unbeaten filly Diamond Rain puts her reputation on the line after winning in the style of a smart filly at Newbury. Kyprios is looking to regain his Gold Cup crown but has some young pretenders that look like they will make a real race of it. The Britannia is always a fascinating puzzle to solve so something for everyone on Day 3 and hopefully plenty more winners.
Whistlejacket has been all the rage for this but favourites have a dreadful record in the Norfolk and at 5/4 I’ve had to oppose. I thought SHAREHOLDER did well to win on debut at Beverley and as long as this doesn’t come too soon he may well be up to the task. He was slowly away and ran green at Beverley but knuckled down well when asked and ran on strongly to just about peg back Moving Force. He will know a lot more this time around and I think he’ll be suited by this big field as it means he can get good cover before coming with his effort.
It is not just a two-horse race though as there is quite a bit of potential on offer. Again that is why I have to be against the favourite at such a short price. Saturday Flirt is over from America and is bred to be smart and impressed making a winning start at Keeneland. She takes on the boys here but shouldn’t be underestimated. Aesterius also made a winning start and has untapped potential in a good renewal.
This is wide open with 20 heading to post so it won’t surprise you that I’ve backed 3 against the field. GOING THE DISTANCE won 2 from 3 as a 2yo and then made a winning return up in trip at Kempton back in April. He has been put away since with this race in mind and with the step up to a mile and a half only going to bring about further improvement he must have a great chance off a 7lb higher mark. Golden Horn colt PONIROS is another one I like as he bumped into Harper’s Ferry at Windsor and then King’s Gambit at Newbury so that form stacks up. He looks the type to keep improving for a while yet and I’m confident he can get involved.
At a massive price I thought ASSAILANT might be worth including too. He has just been a bit too keen to do himself justice but I think this massive field will help him and up to a mile and a half we could see a big run. He is well handicapped off a mark of just 83 and Saffie Osborne takes the ride. Obviously plenty of dangers likely headed by Chantilly who won impressively at Leopardstown and then finished third behind King’s Gambit and Poniros at Newbury in the London Gold Cup. He can improve and will run well. Gilded Water will also enjoy going up in trip and has claims too for the King who won it last year with Desert Hero.
Plenty went wrong on debut for DIAMOND RAIN but she still managed to make a winning start and improved again to win a good race at Newbury last month. She ran on strongly at the finish suggesting this step up to a mile and a half will be ideal. The runner-up Ejaabiyah has won impressively since so the form has been boosted too. She holds an entry in the Irish Oaks and connections will be hoping to win this en route.
Kalpana hasn’t done much wrong winning 2 from 4 and should have more to come so could be the danger. Siyola was third behind the selection at Newbury but I do think she is better than that so she could run better than her odds suggest but she can only be a watching brief as is held on form.
No doubt Kyprios will be a warm order to regain his crown having won this back in 2022. He looks to have a great chance having won well at Navan and then followed up at Leopardstown last month but his price doesn’t excite me. I think GREGORY might be the value play. He looked an exciting horse winning his first 3 starts and while things haven’t gone to plan since he has shaped to me as though he could relish this trip. If he improves then he will be a danger to all and at 6/1 at the time of writing is big enough to bet on.
I do think it is more open than the betting is suggesting and the likes of Vauban and Trawlerman have claims. The latter actually beat Kyprios on Champions Day last year so the fact he is 8/1 does seem a bit insulting. Sweet William at 18’s might be worth a bet to hit the frame as well as I do think he’ll see out the trip.
The Britannia is always fiercely competitive and I have decided to take 4 against the field this year. MICKLEY is a strong each way selection as he has looked really progressive for Ed Bethell and if he was with one of the bigger trainers would be much shorter than 16/1. He bolted up at Southwell and then returned from a short break to win impressively at Doncaster, running on strongly. He will love a fast pace to run down and off a mark of 90 should have a big say in the outcome here. I also like DASHING DARCEY for Roger Varian. He impressed winning readily at Haydock and he looked to have a bit in hand that day so a 6lb rise is manageable.
MISSION TO MOON cost us a few bets at Epsom but he didn’t do much wrong and seems to be improving with experience. He impressed at Goodwood prior to that and if things drop right I can’t leave him unbacked at 18/1. Also WATCHA MATEY has taken his form up a few notches winning at Newmarket and Musselburgh and with that form from last time franked since might be able to play a part. Loads of dangers with Qirat, Volterra and Starlore all making the shortlist in a typical deep renewal.
After winning at Newbury KING’S GAMBIT was well backed to follow up next time but he was far too keen and did plenty wrong before eventually going down just a head to Bracken’s Laugh. He was put away after and returned with an improved run to win by 4 lengths up in trip last month. He stayed on strongly on that occasion and while this is tougher stepping into Group company now he is armed with a lot of potential and should follow up with Buick booked again.
First Look has been knocking on the door over in France and might be the one to give him most to think about. Bracken’s Laugh was beat at Chester but is another one who could easily still have more to offer. Portland finally got his head back in front at Leopardstown and is Aidan O’Brien’s sole representative but still looks up against it.
I backed ENGLISH OAK quite a few times as a 3yo and it is good to see him confirming that promise now. He caught the eye running on well on reappearance at Newmarket and improved to win impressively at Haydock last time. Things really look to have clicked for him now and even up 9lb I think he could have a bit in hand of the handicapper. He is still unexposed over this trip and with a big field and plenty of cover and a stiff finish he ticks plenty of boxes and I think he’ll follow up.
There are a couple that make appeal at huge odds so I’ve had a couple of savers in a hope they can hit the frame. CARRYTHEONE was right back to his best winning at Newmarket albeit by a short head last month. If he is in that sort of form again then he shouldn’t be as big as 20/1. THE X O was third behind Rhoscolyn and Mission To Moon at Epsom and that looks decent form so if he gets a bit of luck could run much better than his odds of 40/1 suggest.
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Royal Ascot Day 3 Tips: Analyse and Predicting Winners
Royal Ascot is one of the most prestigious horse racing festivals in the world, captivates enthusiasts with its blend of fashion, tradition, and thrilling races. Day 3 of the festival, traditionally known as Ladies’ Day, is particularly notable for its glamour and competitive racing. Predicting winners on this day involves a comprehensive analysis of various factors, ranging from horse form and jockey performance to track conditions and historical trends.
Key Races and Contenders
Day 3 features seven exciting races, each offering unique challenges and opportunities for betting enthusiasts. Here are some tips on analysing and predicting the best chances of winners in each race:
The Norfolk Stakes
- Speed and Juvenile Form: This race for two-year-olds often goes to the fastest juvenile. Look for horses that have exhibited blistering speed in their previous outings.
- Trainer Insight: Certain trainers have a knack for preparing juveniles for sprint distances. Their entries often command respect.
- Race Experience: Juveniles that have raced and won against strong competition can handle the pressure and dynamics of a big race day.
The King George V Stakes
- Handicap Analysis: Evaluate how well horses are handicapped. Those that appear well-weighted compared to their past performances in handicap races can offer good value.
- Progressive Types: Focus on three-year-olds that have shown significant improvement over the season. Late bloomers often excel in this race.
- Stamina: Given the 1 mile 4 furlongs distance, look for horses that have shown staying power in similar or slightly shorter races.
The Ribblesdale Stakes
- Form and Progression: Focus on the recent form of the fillies. Those that have shown significant improvement over their last few runs are often peaking at the right time.
- Pedigree: A strong pedigree, particularly for staying races, can be a key indicator of potential success.
- Ground Preference: Analyse how each filly performs on different types of ground. Horses that have shown versatility or preference for the expected ground conditions will have an advantage.
The Gold Cup
- Past Performance: Assess the historical performance of the horses in long-distance races. Horses with a proven track record over similar distances, like previous Gold Cup winners or those with consistent finishes in Group 1 races, are often strong contenders.
- Stamina and Endurance: This race, being over 2 miles 4 furlongs, demands exceptional stamina. Look for horses that have demonstrated endurance in grueling races.
- Trainer and Jockey: The expertise of the trainer and the skill of the jockey are critical. Trainers with a history of preparing horses for marathon distances and jockeys with experience in such races tend to have an edge.
The Britannia Stakes
- Class Droppers: Horses dropping in class from Group races to this handicap often perform well. Their experience against tougher competition can give them an edge.
- Unexposed Horses: Look for lightly raced three-year-olds with potential for improvement. These horses often have more to offer than what their form suggests.
- Draw Bias: Pay attention to the draw, as certain stalls can offer a tactical advantage based on the track configuration and race distance.
The Hampton Court Stakes
- Form and Class: Horses that have performed well in Group races are often worth considering, even if they haven’t won. Consistent form against high-quality fields is a good indicator.
- Improvers: Look for horses that have shown notable progression in their recent races. Improvement in key metrics like finishing speed and stamina can be telling.
- Trainer Patterns: Some trainers target this race specifically, and their entries should be given additional scrutiny.
The Buckingham Palace Stakes
- Specialists: Horses that specialise in the 7 furlongs distance and have a proven record over this trip should be given preference.
- Handicap Marks: Assess horses that are potentially well-treated by the handicapper. A good recent performance under similar conditions can highlight a horse poised to run well.
- Course Form: Horses with previous good runs at Ascot should be noted, as familiarity with the course can be a significant advantage.
Analytical Approach
To predict winners effectively, a combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis is essential:
Form Analysis: Scrutinise the recent form of each horse, focusing on their last three to five runs. Pay attention to the quality of opposition they have faced, the conditions under which they performed, and the margins of their victories or defeats.
Speed Figures: Use speed ratings to compare the relative performances of the horses. Horses with consistently high speed figures in their recent races are likely to perform well.
Track Conditions: Monitor the weather forecast and track conditions closely. Some horses perform better on firm ground, while others excel on softer surfaces. Matching a horse’s preference to the expected ground conditions can significantly enhance predictive accuracy.
Historical Trends: Examine historical data for trends such as the success of certain trainers, jockeys, or specific breeding lines in the race. These trends can provide insights that are not immediately apparent from recent form alone.
Betting Market: Keep an eye on the betting market movements. While not always an infallible indicator, significant shifts can sometimes reveal inside information or growing confidence in a particular horse’s chances.
Conclusion
Predicting winners at Royal Ascot, particularly on Day 3, involves a meticulous blend of studying form, understanding race dynamics, and considering external factors like weather and track conditions. By applying a comprehensive analytical approach, punters can enhance their chances of identifying potential winners and enjoying the thrill of this iconic racing festival.
