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Royal Ascot Day 5 Tips

The fifth and final day of Royal Ascot never disappoints! The QEII looks a fiercely competitive renewal with over half a mil going to the winner. Mitbaahy picked up strongly to win the Greenlands Stakes in Ireland and looks to have a strong chance for Charlie Hills who won it last year with Khaadem. Continous and Middle Earth lock horns in the Hardwicke and River Tiber and Haatem clash in the Jersey which is a mouthwatering prospect.

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Chesham Stakes
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ASCOT
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14:30 - SATURDAY
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Trends
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4 of the last 12 winners were favourites with 7 of 12 top 3 in the betting
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7 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before
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11 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 run that season and 7 of 12 at least 1 win
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0 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Ascot

I have made some good money this week in the 2yo races looking away from the top of the market and PENTLE BAY catches the eye at a big price. This New Bay colt was well backed on debut and he really impressed given he was slowly away and hampered at the start. He had to use up a lot of petrol to get into it but managed to quicken twice and stay on strongly to get up. He has been snapped up for £400,000 by Teme Valley and I think connections will be hopeful of a bold showing as am I with further improvement to come.

Bedtime Story looks likely to go off favourite for Aidan O’Brien but I don’t think she beat a great deal on debut at Leopardstown and I’m not sure she warrants being so short. I actually fear Age Of Gold more as he overcame inexperience to make a winning start and clearly has a bright future.

11
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Pentle Bay
Trainer
George Boughey
Jockey
Tom Marquand
6/1
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Form -
1
Age -
2
Weight -
9-5
Draw -
11
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Hardwicke Stakes
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ASCOT
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15:05 - SATURDAY
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Trends
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9 of the last 12 winners were aged 4
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4 of the last 12 winners were favourites and 8 of 12 top 3 in the betting
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7 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before
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10 of the last 12 winners were rated 114 or higher

John Gosden knows how to win this race and MIDDLE EARTH could prove tough to pass. He won 3 of his last 4 as a 3yo and picked up where he left off prevailing in a tight finish with King Of Conquest last month. He steps up into Group 2 company here but has more to come over this trip and with Candleford and Elegant Man like to force the pace it should pan out perfectly.

Continuous was a good fifth in the Arc when last seen and with more to come as a 4yo looks the danger. Desert Hero won at the meeting last year but has a lot of ground to make up with the selection on that Newbury form so might be up against it even if back to his best.

8
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Middle Earth
Trainer
John & Thady Gosden
Jockey
Oisin Murphy
5/2
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Form -
221171-1
Age -
4
Weight -
9-3
Draw -
8
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Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes
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ASCOT
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15:45 - SATURDAY
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Trends
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9 of the last 12 winners were aged 4 or 5
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4 of the last 12 winners were favourites and 8 of 12 top 3 in the betting
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5 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before
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9 of the last 12 winners were rated 114 or higher

I’m pleasantly surprised that MITBAAHY is as big as 13/2 here. He is a smart sprinter and he caught the eye finishing fourth in the Abernant on return and then a slow start cost him any chance in the Palace House Stakes. He was back to his best storming home to win the Greenlands Stakes in Ireland last time though and Regional the runner-up has boosted that form since finishing second in the King Charles II Stakes here earlier in the week. As long as he can keep tabs on them early I think he’ll be the one finishing best and hopefully he can pick them up late.

Shartash has won his last two and has been snapped up by Wathnan Racing who have had a good week. He is still largely unexposed so back down in trip could be the danger with this stiff finish ideal. The Wizard Of Eye impressed winning the Victoria Cup and is another one to note if handling the drop back in trip.

6
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Mitbaahy
Trainer
Charles Hills
Jockey
Jamie Spencer
6/1
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Form -
8/5881-471
Age -
5
Weight -
9-5
Draw -
1
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Jersey Stakes
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ASCOT
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16:25 - SATURDAY
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Trends
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5 of the last 12 winners were favourites or joint favourites and 7 of 12 top 3 in the betting
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2 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before
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3 of the last 12 winners ran in the 2000 Guineas (Newmarket)
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3 of the last 12 winners ran in the Irish 2000 Guineas (Curragh)

I’m keen to side with HAATEM back down to 7f. He has looked better than ever this season making a winning return at Newmarket before finishing third in the Guineas. He then went down just a head to stablemate Rosallion in the Irish equivalent and he deserves to bag himself one of these prizes.

River Tiber won the Coventry at this meeting last year and looks the danger but does have ground to make up on that run in the Irish Guineas last time. Kikkuli is another one in with a squeak but that Sandown form has taken a couple of knocks since with the winner Almaqam and third Sons And Lovers both well held since.

1
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Haatem
Trainer
Richard Hannon
Jockey
James Doyle
11/4
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Form -
21955-132
Age -
3
Weight -
9-6
Draw -
15
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Wokingham Stakes 
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ASCOT
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17:05 - SATURDAY
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Trends
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9 of the last 12 winners were aged 4 or 5
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1 of the last 12 winners were favourites and 1 of 12 top 3 in the betting
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8 of the last 12 winners came from stall 15 or higher
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9 of the last 12 winners carried between 9 stone 2lb and 9 stone 9lb

A wide open Wokingham as you’d expect and I will be in the owners and trainers at Royal Ascot on Saturday cheering on Flaming Rib. He is hard to make a case for but if bouncing back could give us a memorable day. ALBASHEER is the one I like most as he looked back on the up winning at Newcastle and then following up at the same venue back in March. He was only midfield back up in trip next time and then couldn’t get going in deep ground in France last time in Group company. Back in a handicap off a lower mark back on turf he is handicapped to have a big say.

SAINT LAWRENCE has been hinting that he might be ready to bounce back of late and dropped another 2lb and back down to 6f with this track likely to suit I think he is going to run a big race. He won the Wokingham here on debut for this yard last year and is only actually 3lb higher than that here. The other one I’ve backed is COVER UP at around 20/1. He has won 3 of his last 4 and had excuses when down the field last time. Put away since with this race the target he could get involved. The key to him will be settling early so hopefully he gets cover before looking to pick his way through.

7
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Saint Lawrence
Trainer
Archie Watson
Jockey
Luke Morris
12/1
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Form -
01390-070
Age -
6
Weight -
9-8
Draw -
17
11
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Cover Up
Trainer
John & Thady Gosden
Jockey
William Buick
16/1
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Form -
01251-110
Age -
4
Weight -
9-6
Draw -
29
16
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Albasheer
Trainer
Archie Watson
Jockey
Hollie Doyle
8/1
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Form -
8453-1179
Age -
6
Weight -
9-5
Draw -
31
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Golden Gates Stakes
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ASCOT
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17:40 - SATURDAY
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Only 4 runnings of this race so no clear trends.

I was at Sandown to see HAND OF GOD win and while he was strongly pressed in the closing stages I never felt like he was going to be headed and he kept pulling out more. I would mark that up somewhat and I expect him to come on plenty so a mere 3lb rise shouldn’t be enough to stop him following up. I think he’ll improve again for the step up to a mile and a quarter here and he has plenty going for him. He has a good draw and should get a good target to run down so with Buick booked he is the one to be on.

Portsmouth was well backed again at Epsom but could only finish second but I still think he has more to come and he might be the danger. Approval impressed at Windsor and is another one who enters calculations. Palace Green impressed winning easily at Kempton and then was third at York and back down in trip might have more to offer too.

8
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Hand Of God
Trainer
Harry Charlton
Jockey
William Buick
11/4
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Form -
451-1
Age -
3
Weight -
9-0
Draw -
17
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Queen Alexandra Stakes
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ASCOT
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18:15 - SATURDAY
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Trends
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11 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or older
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3 of the last 12 winners were favourites and 7 of 12 top 3 in the betting
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1 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before
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10 of the last 12 winners had a rating of 97 or higher

I can see last years winner Dawn Rising and RUN FOR OSCAR fighting out the lucky last. The former has been out of form but was pitched into Group company behind Kyprios at Leopardstown last time and that should have left him spot on for this back up markedly in trip. He had a similar prep last year so is definitely feared. The latter finished third in this last year but was badly hampered when gathering momentum a couple of furlongs out and may well have troubled the winner so it could be redemption this year with headgear reapplied.

Queenstown is favourite but I only think that is because he is trained by Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore rides. He has finished behind Kyprios the last twice but looks quite one paced to me and I don’t think he deserves to be a shorter price than the two mentioned above. Postileo is another one to note but will likely need a career best to spring an upset.

6
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Run For Oscar
Trainer
Charles Byrnes, Ireland
Jockey
Maxime Guyon
5/1
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Form -
1/53453-57
Age -
9
Weight -
9-4
Draw -
11
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Royal Ascot Day 5 Tips: Analysing and Predicting Winners

Royal Ascot, one of the most prestigious horse racing festivals in the world, captivates enthusiasts with its blend of high fashion, tradition, and thrilling races. Day 5 of the festival continues the excitement with a mix of top-tier Group races and competitive handicaps. Predicting winners on this day involves a comprehensive analysis of various factors, ranging from horse form and jockey performance to track conditions and historical trends.

Key Races and Contenders

Day 5 features seven exciting races, each offering unique challenges and opportunities for betting enthusiasts. Here are some tips on analysing and predicting the best chances of winners in each race:

  1. The Chesham Stakes

    • Juvenile Form: Focus on two-year-olds that have shown early promise in their careers. Horses that have won or placed well in their maiden or novice races are key contenders.
    • Speed and Pedigree: Assess the speed figures from their previous runs and consider their breeding, especially those bred for longer distances.
    • Trainer and Jockey: Trainers with a strong record in juvenile races and jockeys experienced with young horses can make a significant difference.
  2. The Jersey Stakes

    • Group Form: Look for three-year-olds that have performed well in Group races, particularly those over seven furlongs. Horses with consistent high-level performances are often reliable.
    • Sprint and Mile Specialists: Horses that have demonstrated their ability to handle the pace and intensity of high-class sprints and mile races are crucial.
    • Ground Conditions: Consider the horses’ performances on various ground types. Versatility or preference for the expected ground conditions can be a decisive factor.

  3. The Hardwicke Stakes

    • Group Race Form: Evaluate horses that have performed well in Group 1 and Group 2 races. Look for those with consistent top-level form over 1 mile 4 furlongs.
    • Staying Power: Given the distance, horses with proven stamina are key. Focus on those that have performed well in similar or longer distances.
    • Trainer Expertise: Trainers with a strong record in middle-distance races can often provide an edge.

  4. The Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes

    • Sprint Form: Focus on horses that have shown top-level form in sprint races, particularly over six furlongs. Horses with Group 1 sprint success are key contenders.
    • Speed and Finishing Kick: Horses that have a strong finishing kick in the final furlongs often excel in this race.
    • International Form: Consider horses from international stables, especially those with proven Group 1 sprint form.

  5. The Wokingham Stakes

    • Handicap Analysis: Evaluate how well the horses are handicapped. Look for those that appear well-weighted compared to their past performances in handicap races.
    • Sprint Specialists: Focus on horses that have demonstrated their ability to handle the pace and intensity of competitive sprints.
    • Course Form: Horses with previous good runs at Ascot should be noted, as familiarity with the course can be a significant advantage.

  6. The Golden Gates Stakes

    • Class Droppers: Horses dropping in class from Group races to this handicap often perform well. Their experience against tougher competition can give them an edge.
    • Improvers: Look for lightly raced three-year-olds with potential for improvement. These horses often have more to offer than what their form suggests.
    • Stamina and Versatility: Consider horses that have shown versatility and stamina over 1 mile 2 furlongs.

  7. The Queen Alexandra Stakes

    • Extreme Stamina: Given the marathon distance of 2 miles 5 furlongs, horses with proven stamina and endurance are crucial. Focus on those that have performed well in staying races.
    • Trainer Patterns: Trainers with a history of targeting long-distance races can provide valuable insights.
    • Course Form: Horses with previous good runs at Ascot or over similar extreme distances should be noted.

Analytical Approach

To predict winners effectively, a combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis is essential:

  • Form Analysis: Scrutinise the recent form of each horse, focusing on their last three to five runs. Pay attention to the quality of opposition they have faced, the conditions under which they performed, and the margins of their victories or defeats.

  • Speed Figures: Utilise speed ratings to compare the relative performances of the horses. Horses with consistently high speed figures in their recent races are likely to perform well.

  • Track Conditions: Monitor the weather forecast and track conditions closely. Some horses perform better on firm ground, while others excel on softer surfaces. Matching a horse’s preference to the expected ground conditions can significantly enhance predictive accuracy.

  • Historical Trends: Examine historical data for trends such as the success of certain trainers, jockeys, or specific breeding lines in the race. These trends can provide insights that are not immediately apparent from recent form alone.

  • Betting Market: Keep an eye on the betting market movements. While not always an infallible indicator, significant shifts can sometimes reveal inside information or growing confidence in a particular horse’s chances.

Conclusion

Predicting winners at Royal Ascot, particularly on Day 5, involves a meticulous blend of studying form, understanding race dynamics, and considering external factors like weather and track conditions. By applying a comprehensive analytical approach, punters can enhance their chances of identifying potential winners and enjoying the thrill of this iconic racing festival.