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Cheltenham Festival Day 2 Tips

The action keeps coming thick and fast now and we have potentially one of the races of the Festival today in the shape of the Turners Novices’ Hurdle. Unbeaten hurdlers Final Demand, The New Lion and The Yellow Clay locks horns in what is set to be a thrilling race. Ballyburn will be looking to continue on his upward trajectory stretching out further in trip and Stumptown will be hopeful of Cross Country glory for Gavin Cromwell. Jonbon is hoping to break his Festival duck but that might not be as easy as the odds are suggesting.

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Turners Novices’ Hurdle
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CHELTENHAM
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13:20 - WEDNESDAY
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Trends
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11 of the last 12 winners were aged 5 or 6
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6 of the last 12 winners were favourites with 10 of 12 top 3 in the betting
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12 of the last 12 winners were rated 146 or higher
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11 of the last 12 winners had at least 2 wins that season

The Turners looks like one of the best races of the Festival and I’m hopeful that FINAL DEMAND can deliver the goods. He has gone 2-2 over hurdles so far and couldn’t really have won any more impressive at the DRF scampering clear by 12 lengths at the line. The runner-up Wingmen is a fair yardstick and it just all looked so effortless. I expect him to improve again and his long stride should see him stay on strongly up the hill.

The New Lion is also yet to taste defeat but I have my doubts over that Challow form and I’ll be surprised if he is good enough to turn over the Mullins runner. I picture it as him going for home and the selection pegging him back in the closing stages. The Yellow Clay is a horse I like as well so he deserves a mention but I feel like they have opted for the wrong race and he should be in the Albert Bartlett but interested to see how he runs.

1
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Final Demand
Trainer
W. P. Mullins, Ireland
15/8
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Form -
11
Age -
6
Weight -
11-7
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Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase
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CHELTENHAM
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14:00 - WEDNESDAY
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Trends
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9 of the last 12 winners were aged 7 including the last 4
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6 of the last 12 winners were favourites with 9 of 12 top 3 in the betting
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8 of the last 12 winners won on their last start before the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase
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7 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham

Another Willie Mullins favourite and this in my eyes the best of the lot. BALLYBURN was an awesome winner of the Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle at last year’s Cheltenham Festival and he backed that up following up at Punchestown. He was always going to go over fences this season and jumped well en route to making all on chase debut at Punchestown back in November. A combination of faster ground and 2 miles seemed to catch him out at Kempton but I didn’t see that run as bad as some. He bumped into Sir Gino who looks a monster himself and the trip was just way too sharp. Back up in distance he looked much better at Leopardstown last month and I loved how good he looked away from the last. He will be spot on for this now and is hard to oppose.

I expect him to relish stretching out beyond 3 miles for the first time and I see him as a future Gold Cup contender (for which he is a 12/1 chance best price). Stablemate Dancing City is a nice horse himself but he would need the ground much softer to have a chance. The pair have met before albeit in a bumper at Punchestown where Ballyburn was 6 lengths too strong. Obviously you can’t take that literally but Ballyburn does seem to hold a class-edge on his stablemate. Better Days Ahead shouldn’t be discounted either as he was beaten a head by Croke Park and that form ties in with Ballyburn albeit he would be held on that. I think however you break this down there is only one winner and I think it’ll be by a wide margin as well.

1
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Ballyburn
Trainer
W. P. Mullins, Ireland
1/1
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Form -
2111-1121
Age -
7
Weight -
11-7
Draw -
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Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle
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CHELTENHAM
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14:40 - WEDNESDAY
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Trends
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10 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 and 8
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1 of the last 12 winners were favourites with 3 of 12 top 3 in the betting
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8 of the last 12 winners carried between 10 stone 6lbs and 11 stone 8lbs
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10 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham and 5 of 12 with at least 1 win

Favourites have a terrible record in the Coral Cup and for a horse that hasn’t looked the most straightforward at times I’m surprised Be Aware is as short as he is for this. I know the yard have won this race for the last two years with Langer Dan but I still think he has been overbet somewhat. I much prefer IMPOSE TOI for Nicky Henderson who has targeted this race down the years winning it with some nice types. This 7yo has only had 8 starts over hurdles and he has won 4 of them. I was impressed with that Newbury win and he could still be a fair bit better than a mark of 141. They always tend to go for home too soon in this so I can see his patient riding style paying dividends.

At a much bigger price don’t be surprised to see SA FUREUR run well for Gordon Elliott. This horse looked good winning easily at Navan on penultimate start but he had excuses losing a lot of ground at the start and if you put a line through that he could be well handicapped off a mark of 145 here. I know confidence surrounding his chance is growing in the yard and at 22/1 at the time of writing he is definitely worth an each way play. Tons of dangers as you’d expect in this possibly headed by Bunting for Tony Bloom with Paul Townend booked.

7
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Sa Fureur
Trainer
Gordon Elliott, Ireland
20/1
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Form -
P/F124-210
Age -
8
Weight -
11-6
Draw -
11
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Impose Toi
Trainer
Nicky Henderson
8/1
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Form -
212/1123-1
Age -
7
Weight -
11-2
Draw -
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Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase
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CHELTENHAM
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15:20 - WEDNESDAY
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Trends
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10 of the last 11 winners were aged 8 or older
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4 of the last 11 winners were favourites or joint favourites, 9 of 11 top 3 in the betting
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3 of the last 11 winners won on their last run before
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9 of the last 11 winners were rated 142 or higher

Over the years I have tended to avoid the Cross Country but I have a strong opinion this year and that is that STUMPTOWN wins! He is still just an 8yo and has really taken well to this discipline. I thought he was good value for that win over Mister Coffey here back in December and he looks to have plenty going for him. He handles all types of ground and there looks to be a bit of rain about now which should suit. If he jumps well I think he’ll prove too good for these and if anything 11/4 looks generous and I expect him to shorten up somewhat.

Galvin has been a magnificent horse down the years but he is an 11yo now and will start to regress at some point. He hasn’t been running badly and seems to be over those excursions of the Grand National so should run his race I just don’t think that’ll be good enough. Mister Coffey loves running on late and the ground should be perfect so he might be the one to finish second again.

1
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Stumptown
Trainer
Gavin Patrick Cromwell, Ireland
5/2
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Form -
P1P3-U111
Age -
8
Weight -
11-10
Draw -
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Queen Mother Champion Chase
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CHELTENHAM
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16:00 - WEDNESDAY
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Trends
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10 of the last 12 winners were aged between 7 and 9
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5 of the last 12 winners were favourites and 11 of 12 top 3 in the betting
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6 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before
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10 of the last 12 winners had a rating of 162 or higher

The big one now and I’ve made it no secret that I am taking on Jonbon. I’m convinced he doesn’t like Cheltenham and he just looks way too short for a horse that has been to the Festival twice and lost on both occasions. He was impressive beating Energumene at Ascot but the latter didn’t look suited by the track or ground so I wouldn’t go mad over the form. MARINE NATIONALE is the one I’ve decided to chance against. He slowly seems to be coming back to the boil and I thought that was quite an eye-catching run at the Dublin Racing Festival. I’d be confident of him reversing form with Solness and he could pick up the pieces in the closing stages.

There is going to be plenty of pace on and that should help the selection. Found A Fifty is another one that looks a bit overpriced as he was actually backed into favourite at the DRF before pulling up. If bouncing back he might have gone under the radar a bit so I definitely think this race is more open than the betting is suggesting.

6
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Marine Nationale
Trainer
Barry Connell, Ireland
9/2
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Form -
111/15-232
Age -
8
Weight -
11-10
Draw -
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Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase
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CHELTENHAM
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16:40 - WEDNESDAY
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Trends
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9 of the last 12 winners were aged between 7 and 9
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2 of the last 12 winners were favourites, 3 of 12 top 3 in the betting
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9 of the last 12 winners carried between 10 stone 11lbs and 11 stone 6lbs
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11 of the last 12 winners had a rating of 138 or higher

The Grand Annual is always one of the most competitive handicaps of the week so it won’t surprise you that I’ve taken two against the field. SO SCOTTISH makes plenty of appeal for Emmet Mullins. This 8yo failed to get seriously competitive the last twice but as a result seems to have been given a lenient mark of 139 and he has had a wind op since last seen which could see him spark back into life. His second to The Wallpark at Galway catches the eye and he has some decent form to his name so if things drop right he could be a major player.

I know he is top-weight but JPR ONE could be worth chancing as well. I loved the way he powered to the front to win the Haldon Gold Cup on reappearance beating Djelo and despite suffering defeat the last twice is definitely interesting now back in a handicap. He will be well suited by this test and the money is starting to come for him so confidence is definitely growing. Lots of dangers as you’d expect and Unexpected Party could definitely go close having won the race last year. The King Of Prs is another one I expect to be on the premises.

1
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Jpr One
Trainer
Joe Tizzard
10/1
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Form -
1U317-134
Age -
8
Weight -
12-0
Draw -
10
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So Scottish
Trainer
Emmet Mullins, Ireland
9/1
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Form -
0-0245270
Age -
8
Weight -
10-11
Draw -
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Weatherbys Champion Bumper 
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CHELTENHAM
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17:20 - WEDNESDAY
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Trends
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12 of the last 12 winners were aged 5 or 6
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3 of the last 12 winners were favourites with 8 of 12 top 3 in the betting
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12 of the last 12 winners won on their previous run before
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10 of the last 12 winners were rated 120 or higher

Patrick Mullins rides COPACABANA and this son of Blue Bresil looks very exciting. He won his sole start at Navan by 5 lengths and looked something out of the ordinary that day. Put away with this in mind he could take a lot of beating. Obviously it is hard to be bullish though as anything can improve so while I see him as the most likely winner I never go too big in this race as there can be hard luck stories with so many inexperienced horses lining up.

Gameofinches cut through them like a hot knife through butter at Punchestown but I think he’d want the ground to be softer. If the heavens do open then watch his price tumble. Bambino Fever is likeable but she’d lack the scope of some of these and this is a much sterner test of her credentials. Kalypso’chance is 2-2 and is another one I expect to get competitive.

1
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Copacabana
Trainer
W. P. Mullins, Ireland
11/4
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Form -
1
Age -
5
Weight -
11-7
Draw -
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