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Cheltenham Festival Day 3 Tips

Cheltenham has already provided the rollercoaster of emotions we have become accustomed to down the years but we are only half way through! Strap yourselves in for another epic day of sport from the heart of the Cotswolds and the home of jump racing. The Ryanair and the Stayers’ Hurdle are the two Grade 1’s on Thursday and in both races there are likely to be well backed favourites which looks difficult to oppose. Away from those two races though there is plenty of value on offer so some big prices picked out for you this afternoon.

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Ryanair Mares’ Novices Hurdle
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CHELTENHAM
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13:20 - THURSDAY
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Trends
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9 of the last 9 winners were aged 5 or 6
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3 of the last 9 winners were favourites or joint favourites with 6 of 9 top 3 in the betting
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0 of the last 9 winners had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham
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7 of the last 9 winners were rated 135 or higher

A fiercely competitive opener on Day 3 of the Cheltenham Festival and I have looked away from the top of the market here. I have backed two against the field at nice each way prices with AURORA VEGA potentially the best of them. This Walk In The Park mare bolted up on hurdles debut as expected but then was turned over at Wexford. Clearly something went amiss there as she was back on track at Fairyhouse and again followed up at the same venue when last seen. She has won 3 from 4 over hurdles and is progressing nicely so should go close with the promise of more to come.

I know Paul Nicholls has been struggling this season but I can’t help but feel JUBILEE ALPHA is a little overpriced here at around 12/1. She impressed me beating Hollygrove Cha Cha at Taunton and then followed up at Windsor beating another decent yardstick. She is improving with experience and should be well suited by this test so I can see her going close under Harry Cobden. Plenty of dangers probably headed by Sixandahalf who is obviously completely unexposed for Gavin Cromwell. Maughreen is another one who could threaten if she manages to settle better.

2
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Aurora Vega
Trainer
W. P. Mullins, Ireland
8/1
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Form -
114-31P11
Age -
7
Weight -
11-4
Draw -
9
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Jubilee Alpha
Trainer
Paul Nicholls
12/1
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Form -
12-311
Age -
6
Weight -
11-4
Draw -
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Jack Richards Novices’ Chase
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CHELTENHAM
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14:00 - THURSDAY
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Trends
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11 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or 7
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5 of the last 12 winners were favourites or joint favourites with 10 of 12 top 3 in the betting
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10 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before
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11 of the last 12 winners were rated 147 or higher

Another wide open race so again I have tried to get us some value. FIREFOX really catches the eye for Gordon Elliott. This 7yo has been running well in Graded company so dropped into a handicap now could be primed for a massive run. I have had my eye on SPRINGWELL BAY for a while now and this horse was really impressive here on New Year’s Day. He has gone up 9lb but has more to come over fences and confidence seems high in the yard. He had multiple options but has opted for this race.

MOON D’ORANGE could also be worth including. He survived a shocking error at the last to win here on Trials Day and despite a 6lb rise could have further improvement in him with Sean Bowen in the saddle again. Tons of dangers likely headed by Asian Master who also goes handicapping for the first time so could have a big run in him. Answer To Kayf can travel strongly and is another who will be well suited by this scenario.

1
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Springwell Bay
Trainer
Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill
10/1
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Form -
142U-1321
Age -
8
Weight -
11-12
Draw -
2
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Firefox
Trainer
Gordon Elliott, Ireland
8/1
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Form -
432-21323
Age -
7
Weight -
11-8
Draw -
16
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Moon D'Orange
Trainer
John McConnell, Ireland
16/1
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Form -
310-33421
Age -
7
Weight -
10-7
Draw -
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Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle
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CHELTENHAM
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14:40 - THURSDAY
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Trends
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11 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 and 8
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2 of the last 12 winners were favourites with 5 of 12 top 3 in the betting
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8 of the last 12 winners carried 11 stone 4lbs or less
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11 of the last 12 winners were rated 138 or higher

I had been waiting to see WIN SOME LOSE SOME up in trip and he duly delivered at Leopardstown staying on strongly to win well with the front pair clear. The third that day was Feet Of A Dancer so I think he’ll confirm that form again here. He has won 2 of his last 3 so is looking progressive and remains unexposed over this trip. He ticks plenty of the trends so don’t be surprised if he turns into a bit of a gamble especially in the McManus silks. There is a lot of pace on as you’d expect and I can see him travelling strongly into it.

With so many runners heading to post it is worth covering a couple and CATCH HIM DERRY could also run well for Dan and Harry Skelton. This lightly raced 7yo came good winning readily under a patient ride at Exeter last month and could still be well handicapped off a mark of 129. He certainly has untapped potential and if it pans out for him he could go close. Plenty of dangers and Jeriko Du Reponet deserves a mention and is likely to go off favourite. He has plenty of ability but doesn’t always channel it right and I would rather take him on at the prices.

4
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Win Some Lose Some
Trainer
Padraig Roche, Ireland
8/1
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Form -
7-1310141
Age -
6
Weight -
11-9
Draw -
20
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Catch Him Derry
Trainer
Dan Skelton
16/1
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Form -
3121-1P61
Age -
7
Weight -
11-0
Draw -
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Ryanair Chase
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CHELTENHAM
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15:20 - THURSDAY
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Trends
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12 of the last 12 winners were aged between 7 and 9
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5 of the last 12 winners were favourites or joint favourites with 10 of 12 top 3 in the betting
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5 of the last 12 winners won on their previous run before
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11 of the last 12 winners were rated 162 or higher

I’m delighted they have decided to come for this race rather than the Gold Cup with FACT TO FILE. He is still an exciting horse for me despite suffering defeat the last twice. He looks better suited by this trip and however this pans out I’d be confident he would be the one to beat under Mark Walsh. He obviously beat Spillane’s Tower and Galopin Des Champs to win the John Durkan on reappearance and is clearly a top-class horse at his best. He wasn’t given a hard time once held in the Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup and freshened up should have too much for these.

Il Est Francais was grabbed late by Banbridge in the King George which was a massive run but Kempton would suit him better and I worry about him around Cheltenham especially on the New Course. He will try and go hard back down in trip but that could help set it up for the selection. Protektorat won the race last year but isn’t getting any younger and will be susceptible to younger legs. Heart Wood is likeable and is another one that could run a bit better than his odds suggest.

3
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Fact To File
Trainer
W. P. Mullins, Ireland
6/4
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Form -
2/2111-123
Age -
8
Weight -
11-10
Draw -
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Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle
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CHELTENHAM
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16:00 - THURSDAY
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Trends
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10 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 and 8
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3 of the last 12 winners were favourites with 5 of 12 top 3 in the betting
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9 of the last 12 winners were rated 154 or higher
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6 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham

I’m pleasantly surprised to see TEAHUPOO at 6/4. He has been much shorter ante-post but the bookies seem to want to try and take him on. Obviously we have only seen him once this season but don’t let that worry you as his trainer Gordon Elliott has always said he is a better horse when fresh. He was last seen bumping into Lossiemouth which we know is decent form given how impressively she won the Mares earlier in the week. He won the race going away last year and looked a cut above this division following up at Punchestown too. He has tons going for him and should get the job done.

I do think The Wallpark can run well too. It is interesting they have come here instead of going for a handicap and he will be running on well when the others have cried enough. He is a stablemate to the selection and could give the yard a 1-2 in the race. Lucky Place looked good beating Gowel Road here back in January and that is decent form so he heads the dangers but will need to progress again. Langer Dan will have his supporters but he is another one that needs to show much more now to get involved but you wouldn’t put it past him as he can travel strongly into his races.

14
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Teahupoo
Trainer
Gordon Elliott, Ireland
6/4
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Form -
1134/11-12
Age -
8
Weight -
11-10
Draw -
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TrustATrader Plate Handicap Chase
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CHELTENHAM
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16:40 - THURSDAY
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Trends
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9 of the last 12 winners were aged between 7 and 10
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3 of the last 12 winners were favourites and 4 of 12 top 3 in the betting
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11 of the last 12 winners had a rating of 140 or higher
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11 of the last 12 winners had at least 3 runs that season and 10 of 12 at least 1 win

I loved what I saw from JAGWAR on Trials Day. Despite being uneasy in the betting he stayed on strongly to beat his stablemate Billytherealbigred. He has now won 3 from 4 over fences with his only defeat coming at the hands of Jingko Blue at Uttoxeter where he had excuses (made a bad mistake at the last). He is up 7lb but has untapped potential and with more to come should run a big race and is understandably favourite. He travels so strongly in his races which should be a big plus in a big field like this.

Obviously a huge field so I have backed MASACCIO too for Alan King. He finished third behind Jagwar on Trials Day and if jumping with more fluency here could build on that. He has first-time cheekpieces which should help him focus and he looks a decent each way price. Dangers likely headed by Jordans for Joseph O’Brien who was second to Impaire Et Passe in a Grade 1 when last seen. He goes handicapping for the first time now and could run well. Ginny’s Destiny has a bit to prove but he could also surprise a few.

9
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Masaccio
Trainer
Alan King
10/1
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Form -
510-21233
Age -
8
Weight -
11-1
Draw -
13
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Jagwar
Trainer
Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero
9/2
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Form -
5145-1131
Age -
6
Weight -
10-10
Draw -
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Kim Muir Handicap Chase
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CHELTENHAM
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17:20 - THURSDAY
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Trends
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10 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 and 8
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2 of the last 12 winners were favourites with 6 of 12 top 3 in the betting
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11 of the last 12 winners carried 11 stone or more
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10 of the last 12 winners were rated 137 or higher

With the race at his mercy WALKING ON AIR crashed out at the last at Doncaster when last seen. He was back down the weights on that occasion and despite going back up 4lb here if bouncing back he could be a danger to all. This trip is the furthest he would have tried but it should suit and he looks good value against the favourite. He’ll be ridden quietly but that is no bad thing with the amount of pace on and they could easily end up going too hard in this as plenty tend to commit too early and the New course doesn’t take any prisoners.

I have also covered a couple at bigger prices given the amount of places on offer and MINT BOY could get involved. He caught the eye in defeat when third behind High Class Hero at Punchestown last time and now pitched into a handicap could come into his own. Should get carried into the race and looks good value to hit the frame. NINE GRACES was well backed to win at Punchestown and got the job done and has been put away with this is mind since. She is unexposed as a staying chaser and looks handicapped to have a big say. Sa Majeste is another one I can see going well having looked good at Fairyhouse. He has won 2 of his last 3 so is progressive.

6
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Mint Boy
Trainer
Gavin Patrick Cromwell, Ireland
12/1
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Form -
5217-3703
Age -
7
Weight -
11-8
Draw -
12
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Nine Graces
Trainer
Barry Connell, Ireland
16/1
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Form -
3305-3021
Age -
8
Weight -
11-3
Draw -
23
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Walking On Air
Trainer
Gary Brown
8/1
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Form -
59/2P-P63F
Age -
8
Weight -
10-13
Draw -
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