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Aintree Day 3 Tips

It’s Grand National Day! One of the most exciting days in the racing calendar. 34 horses looking to win the most prestigious prize in National Hunt Racing. There are 7 races on the concluding day of the Aintree Grand National Festival and we have covered it in detail and listed some decent bets at the bottom including a 1,500/1 each way Lucky 15.

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William Hill Handicap Hurdle
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AINTREE
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13:20 - SATURDAY
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Trends
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10 of the last 11 winners aged between 6 and 8 years old
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10 of the last 11 winners have returned 11/1 or shorter
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10 of the last 11 winners finished in the top 5 last time out
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9 of the last 11 winners carried 10 stone 12 or more

I do fear Jeriko Du Reponet as he is unexposed and finished in front of CATCH HIM DERRY last time but then the latter did beat him at Exeter and I just think he was given too much to do in the Pertemps. He closed up well late on and with this flatter track likely to suit I can see him stalking into this before finishing strongly. He is around 8/1 at the time of writing and that seems generous to me.

Act Of Authority improved again to chase home Wodhooh in the Martin Pipe and that is obviously strong form. If this pans out favourably he is definitely dangerous for Olly Murphy with Lewis Saunders claiming 7lb. Timmy Tuesday is still improving and is another one I can see getting competitive.

19
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Catch Him Derry
Trainer
Dan Skelton
15/2
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Form -
121-1P613
Age -
7
Weight -
11-4
Draw -
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Turners Mersey Novices’ Hurdle
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AINTREE
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13:55 - SATURDAY
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Trends
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18 of the last 21 winners raced 39 days ago or less
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17 of the last 21 winners placed in the top three last time out
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16 of the last 21 winners priced 5/1 or shorter in the market (11 of last 14)
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20 of the last 26 winners (77%) were either fav or second fav

I’m confident LULAMBA can get back to winning ways here. He was mugged late on in the Triumph and I can’t help but think he was a bit unlucky. They got racing way too soon and he beat everything around him before getting grabbed by a deep closer. He is open to plenty of improvement and I loved how much he found off the bridle the last day. He is still quite a raw horse so should have lots more to come as he fills his frame and odds against is worth snapping up.

Horaces Pearl is still unbeaten and fairly bolted up at Newbury when last seen. He has untapped potential so looks the danger. Koktail Divin ran well when third to Kawaboomga and then improved to bolt up at Leopardstown so is another one expected to be in the shake-up. At a massive price Fingle Bridge might be worth covering using each way extra on bet365 as he is a nice horse but this is a tough ask.

12
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Lulamba
Trainer
Nicky Henderson
11/10
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Form -
112
Age -
4
Weight -
10-11
Draw -
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William Hill Handicap Chase
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AINTREE
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14:30 - SATURDAY
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Trends
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12 of the last 21 winners raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
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Only 5 winners carried more than 11 stone in the last 20 years
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Just 1 Irish-trained winner in the last 47 runnings
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15 of the last 21 winners were aged 8 or older

It is a shame Myretown has come out as he looked to have a major shout. It is wide open now but I do think IMPERIAL SAINT will run well. I certainly wouldn’t judge him too harshly on that run behind Rubaud last time and he likely still has further progress to come over fences. He ticks quite a lot of the trends and it has been a terrific season for Philip Hobbs and Johnston White and they remain in top form operating at a near 25% strike rate in the past fortnight alone.

Docpickedme beat The Changing Man at Doncaster and that is solid form so he must enter calculations and could be the danger. Cruz Control pulled up at Wetherby but he won at this track last season so clearly goes well here and is only 3lb higher so could run well too.

2
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Imperial Saint
Trainer
Philip Hobbs & Johnson White
8/1
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Form -
31-117134
Age -
7
Weight -
11-2
Draw -
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Ivy Liverpool Hurdle
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AINTREE
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15:05 - SATURDAY
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Trends
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15 of the last 20 winners were priced 11/2 or less in the market
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14 of the last 20 winners placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
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9 of the last 20 winners won their last race
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16 of the last 20 winners ran within the last 30 days

The ground is drying out all the time so I can’t bring myself to back Teahupoo at short enough odds again. The ground definitely caught him out last time so on the balance I think he is opposable again. I also have in mind they always said he is a better horse fresh and this is coming soon enough. I’m siding with KITZBUHEL who arrives here fresh having won nicely at Gowran Park when last seen. He is completely unexposed and Mullins is yet to win the Liverpool Hurdle so I think he’ll want to tick that box this afternoon and cap off a great week.

Strong Leader loves the track and could bounce back with a big run. Home By The Lee unseated at Cheltenham and isn’t getting any younger so a bit to prove. The Wallpark could run well if things drop right as he didn’t get the best passage through last month and is plenty talented.

7
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Kitzbuhel
Trainer
W. P. Mullins, Ireland
4/1
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Form -
612-11
Age -
5
Weight -
11-10
Draw -
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Randox Grand National
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AINTREE
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16:00 - SATURDAY
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Trends
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32 of the last 33 winners rated 137 or higher
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31 of the last 33 winners ran no more than 55 days ago
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29 of the last 33 winners had won no more than 6 times over fences before
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25 of the last 33 winners carried 10 stone 13 lbs or less

I always like to have a few darts at the Grand National and have backed four against the field this year. Gavin Cromwell was in terrific form at Cheltenham and he has a really strong string heading to the big race this year. Cross Country hero STUMPTOWN looks to have a major shout following the Tiger Roll route. It is not just that he has looked progressive recently but how he goes through his race that I like a lot. Keith Donoghue never panicked and brought him through steadily and I loved how strong he was through the line. This test will suit and if he gets luck in-running I think he is the one to beat. Obviously VANILLIER was an eye-catcher in that race running on strongly for third. He has experience having run in the race for the last two years and is nicely weighted so shouldn’t be underestimated.

The other pair I have covered are PERCEVAL LEGALLOIS who I get the impression still has a bigger performance in him. He needs to prove himself over the trip but he brings a lot of class to the table and his trainer wouldn’t be running him if he didn’t think he could go close. Mark Walsh is also a notable jockey booking and they must fancy him. I know the drying ground is probably against him but INTENSE RAFFLES has drifted to a massive price now and can’t go unbacked either. He is a likeable grey who could get into a nice rhythm and he has untapped potential so I can still see him running a big race. Obviously dangers a plenty and my shortlist was completed by Hewick who will love the ground and at bigger prices Beauport, Hyland and Grangeclare West.

10
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Stumptown
Trainer
Gavin Patrick Cromwell, Ireland
8/1
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Form -
1P3-U1111
Age -
8
Weight -
11-2
Draw -
16
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Perceval Legallois
Trainer
Gavin Patrick Cromwell, Ireland
12/1
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Form -
5F-286411
Age -
8
Weight -
10-12
Draw -
19
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Intense Raffles
Trainer
T. Gibney, Ireland
11/1
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Form -
5/7111-902
Age -
7
Weight -
10-10
Draw -
28
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Vanillier
Trainer
Gavin Patrick Cromwell, Ireland
10/1
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Form -
020-P6913
Age -
10
Weight -
10-6
Draw -
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Maghull Novices’ Chase 
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AINTREE
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17:00 - SATURDAY
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Trends
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21 of the last 21 winners aged 8 or younger
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21 of the last 21 winners from the first 3 in the market
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18 of the last 21 winners ran within the last 35 days
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10 of the last 21 favourites have won

I’m confident ONLY BY NIGHT can confirm that Arkle form and beat L’eau Du Sud here. She is continually underestimated in the market and ran a massive race to go down less than a length to Jango Baie last month. She was impressive winning her first 3 starts over fences and has the potential to do better again. She travels so well so I think this track and ground will suit and I’d have her favourite especially if Gavin Cromwell has had a good day.

L’eau Du Sud I’m still not convinced by off the bridle but I do respect him as he has won 4 from 5 over fences and we know he’ll be suited by this flatter track too. Kalif Du Berlais looked very good at Cheltenham on penultimate start and despite disappointing at Sandown behind Handstands shouldn’t be written off as he could bounce back and run well.

6
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Only By Night
Trainer
Gavin Patrick Cromwell, Ireland
15/8
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Form -
137-31112
Age -
7
Weight -
11-0
Draw -
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Weatherbys NH Flat Race
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AINTREE
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17:35 - SATURDAY
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Trends
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11 of the last 11 winners were aged 5 or 6
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1 of the last 11 winners were favourites and 3 of 11 top 3 in the betting
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8 of the last 11 winners won on their last run before
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0 of the last 11 winners had at least 1 previous run at Aintree

No real strong opinion in the lucky last but GREEN SPLENDOUR is definitely better than he showed when fifth behind Colcannon at Leopardstown. I think this better ground will suit him and with the promise of more to come he will be a danger to all especially as the yard are red-hot right now. Hopefully they go hard as I think he’ll be covered up and look to pick his way through late.

Mossy Fen Road was heavily backed to win on debut and did so and looks a nice prospect. If he improves he could be a big player in this for Harry Derham. Koktail Brut has more experience than most and was in front of Green Splendour when the pair were beat at Leopardstown. Quaviste is another one who could get competitive as his Huntingdon win has been boosted.

9
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Green Splendour
Trainer
W. P. Mullins, Ireland
11/2
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Form -
4-15
Age -
5
Weight -
11-4
Draw -
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Aintree Day 3 NAP
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Aintree Day 3 NEXT BEST
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Aintree Day 3 DOUBLE
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Aintree Day 3 LUCKY 15
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