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Royal Ascot Day 3 Tips

A lot like the weather the action continues to hot up as we head into Thursday! Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore will be hopeful of more winners and they could get off to the perfect start with Charles Darwin. They also have Garden Of Eden in the Ribblesdale and she is subject to good support at the time of writing. No Kyprios in the Gold Cup so perhaps Trawlerman will have his day in the sun having finished second in this last year. The Britannia is always a tricky puzzle to solve and Jackknife catches the eye in the Hampton Court! Another exciting day ahead.

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Norfolk Stakes
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ASCOT
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14:30 - THURSDAY
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Trends
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0 of the last 12 winners were favourites but 6 of 12 top 3 in the betting
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8 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before
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0 of the last 12 winners had a previous run at Ascot
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10 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 win that season

I know favourites have a terrible record in this race but I do think this year there will be an exception. Everything suggests CHARLES DARWIN is the one to beat. He is progressing fast and his form is stacking up. He hammered Cardiff By The Sea at Naas and that horse ran a huge race to finish less than 2 lengths behind True Love in the Queen Mary yesterday. He looks all about speed so I’m glad they came for this and he should get the job done.

Karl Burke won this last year with Shareholder so Naval Light has to be respected. He bumped into Old Is Gold on debut at Beverley and looks sure to improve on that initial experience. Of the rest First Legion has also looked promising and could do better so enters calculations too.

3
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Charles Darwin
Trainer
Aidan O'Brien, Ireland
10/11
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Form -
411
Age -
2
Weight -
9-3
Draw -
15
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King George V Stakes
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ASCOT
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15:05 - THURSDAY
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Trends
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2 of the last 12 winners were favourites or joint favourites
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9 of the last 12 winners carried 9 stone 1lbs or less
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9 of the last 12 winners came from stall 10 or higher
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11 of the last 12 winners had a rating between 88 and 94

A lot of potential lining up for this as there is most years but I’m really keen on MERCHANT for William Haggas. He has won 2 of his last 3 now and looked really well suited by this trip at York last month. He won convincingly and the form is solid as well. He can progress again on what is just his third start in a handicap and should take a lot of beating.

Sing Us A Song arrives on a hat-trick and impressed winning readily at Sandown last time. He has been freshened up and should give the selection a race at least. Gunship also has potential and is another one to note.

8
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Merchant
Trainer
William Haggas
3/1
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Form -
721-31
Age -
3
Weight -
9-4
Draw -
20
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Ribblesdale Stakes
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ASCOT
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15:40 - THURSDAY
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Trends
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8 of the last 12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
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5 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before
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0 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Ascot
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10 of the last 12 winners were rated 94 or higher

Aidan O’Brien has won the last two renewals of this race with Warm Heart and Port Fairy so I can’t help but feel GARDEN OF EDEN is overpriced. She has had more runs than most but did impress winning well at Naas last month and looks to be coming to the boil at the right time now. This trip will only play to her strengths and I think she’ll be hitting the line hard under Ryan Moore.

Serenity Prayer bumped into Whirl at York and can do better so looks one of the dangers. Catalina Delcarpio is also feared as she was impressive on debut and then ran well in defeat at Navan so she is also armed with potential in what could be quite a decent renewal.

4
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Garden Of Eden
Trainer
Aidan O'Brien, Ireland
5/1
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Form -
01620-761
Age -
3
Weight -
9-2
Draw -
5
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Ascot Gold Cup
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ASCOT
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16:20 - THURSDAY
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Trends
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12 of the last 12 winners were aged 4-6
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8 of the last 12 winners were favourites and 10 of 12 top 3 in the betting
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10 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before
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9 of the last 12 winners rated 117 or higher

No Kyprios this year so Illinois will likely prove popular for O’Brien and Moore but he needs to prove he is up to this level and he has obviously never contested a trip this far. He will go well but looks short enough so I’m siding with TRAWLERMAN to have his day in the sun. He was second in this last year beating all bar Kyprios and another run like that here should see him come out on top. He had a perfect prep bolting up at Sandown and looks worth siding with.

The French horse Candelari beat Sevenna’s Knight easily at Longchamp last month and has now won 4 from 5 so could improve again and get involved as well in a fascinating renewal.

4
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Trawlerman
Trainer
John & Thady Gosden
5/2
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Form -
111/323-51
Age -
7
Weight -
9-4
Draw -
2
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Britannia Stakes
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ASCOT
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17:00 - THURSDAY
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Trends
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1 of the last 12 winners were favourites and just 4 of 12 top 3 in the betting
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10 of the last 12 winners carried 9 stone 2lb or less
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10 of the last 12 winners came from stall 11 or higher
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9 of the last 12 winners rated between 90 and 96

The Britannia is not for the faint-hearted and it won’t surprise you that I’ve taken 3 against the field. CONSOLIDATION showed a good attitude to make a winning return at Goodwood last month and looks progressive so despite the 5lb rise could run a massive race in this. RAAFEDD impressed getting his head in front at Newbury last time and the form looks good so he is definitely another one I want to cover. They have chosen this over a Group 3 on Saturday and that could be significant.

Finally MR CHAPLIN is worth including at a monster price as I think he needed the run at Goodwood and should show up much better here. Brave Mission is being backed and is still unexposed so definitely heads the dangers. Parole D’oro is also worth a second look but this is wide open so don’t go mad.

9
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Mr Chaplin
Trainer
Ralph Beckett
33/1
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Form -
410154-8
Age -
3
Weight -
9-5
Draw -
5
12
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Consolidation
Trainer
Ralph Beckett
11/1
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Form -
6231-1
Age -
3
Weight -
9-4
Draw -
3
25
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Raafedd
Trainer
William Haggas
11/1
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Form -
6-61
Age -
3
Weight -
9-1
Draw -
14
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Hampton Court Stakes
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ASCOT
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17:35 - THURSDAY
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Trends
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4 of the last 12 winners were favourites and 9 of 12 top 3 in the betting
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0 of the last 12 winners had a previous run at Ascot
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12 of the last 12 winners had at least 3 previous Flat runs
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1 of the last 12 winners had a rating of 103 or higher

I can see JACKKNIFE running a big race here. He impressed winning on debut at Epsom only doing what he had to under Oisin Murphy and then improved in defeat when third to Opera Ballo at Sandown. He shaped as though he’d appreciate going up in trip so a mile and a quarter at this track should be ideal and he represents decent value against the market principals.

Trinity College was a length behind Camille Pissarro in France last time and has progressive form so looks one of the dangers. Detain also ties in on that French form so is another one likely to be in there pitching.

8
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Jackknife
Trainer
Roger Varian
13/2
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Form -
13
Age -
3
Weight -
9-2
Draw -
3
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Buckingham Palace Stakes
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ASCOT
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18:10 - THURSDAY
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Trends
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7 of the last 7 winners were aged 4 or older
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1 of the last 7 winners were favourites
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2 of the last 7 winners won on their last run before
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6 of the last 7 winners rated between 92 and 99

A really competitive finale but ENGLISH OAK could be primed to defend his crown. He won this 12 months ago and returned to form when sixth behind My Cloud at Newbury. That form has obviously been franked since and now just 1lb above the mark he won this off last year he will undoubtedly prove a popular pick here.

I also want to cover one at a double figure price though and OLIVER SHOW appeals. He ran huge beaten just a nose in the Lincoln and targeted at this since and having undergone a wind op he could definitely show up well and is a big price too. Never So Brave was also beaten a nose at Chester when last seen and heads the dangers.

12
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English Oak
Trainer
Ed Walker
11/2
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Form -
14629-906
Age -
5
Weight -
9-7
Draw -
27
14
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Oliver Show
Trainer
George Boughey
14/1
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Form -
01319-422
Age -
5
Weight -
9-6
Draw -
26
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Royal Ascot Day 3 DOUBLE
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Royal Ascot Day 3 LUCKY 15
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