Manchester United vs Liverpool Preview

Premier League · Old Trafford · Sunday 4 May 2026 · 15:30 BST

One of the biggest games in English football and while the table makes this look comfortable for both sides, with Man Utd 3rd on 61, Liverpool 4th on 58 and top 5 qualifying for the Champions League this season, neither team is treating it that way. United and Liverpool have never needed a relegation scrap or a title race to make this fixture matter. Pride, history, bragging rights. Both sides want this one badly. Michael Carrick has dragged United into a transformative late-season run since taking over from Amorim, nine unbeaten at home, and a Šeško, Mbeumo, Cunha and Fernandes attack that has finally clicked.

Liverpool arrive depleted. Salah’s hamstring may have ended his final season at Liverpool, Ekitiké, Bradley, Leoni and Endo are all sidelined, Mamardashvili is out, Alisson is a doubt, and Freddie Woodman could be starting in goal. They come in on three straight league wins, with Wirtz and Gakpo in form, and only one win in their last four visits to Old Trafford to put right. United beat them 2-1 at Anfield in October. Expect both teams to come out swinging.

The Result

My model has United at 48%, Liverpool 28%, draw 24%, with a predicted scoreline of 2-1 United. Man Utd to win or draw (handicap +1 market) looks the play. Liverpool away from home with no Salah, no Ekitiké and likely a third-choice keeper is a Liverpool that doesn’t win at Old Trafford very often. Combined model probability for United winning or drawing sits around 72%. United have lost just one of their last ten home league games. Short price, but a decent anchor to my bet builder.

Goals

Goals look the most reliable angle. United average 3.1 total per home game, Liverpool 3.0 per away game, and nine of United’s last ten home matches have cleared the 1.5-goal line. With Woodman likely behind a Liverpool back four that has been shipping chances all season, and both sides genuinely going for the win, the conditions for an open game are all there. Over 2.5 Goals is the standout. My model has it at 63%, and the goalkeeper situation tilts it past that. Both Teams to Score landed four times in the last five PL meetings between these clubs. Even with Liverpool stripped of their two most prolific finishers, Wirtz, Gakpo, Chiesa and Mac Allister produce shots in volume, and United have conceded in 70% of home games this season. Both numbers are short, but the model edge is genuine on each.

Player Markets

On the player markets, two angles stand out. Bryan Mbeumo 1+ Shots on Target. Mbeumo averages 2.1 shots per home game with 0.9 on target, he scored at Anfield in October, and he’s been one of Carrick’s most consistent attacking outlets. The price is short but the hit rate justifies it. The headline value pick is Casemiro to be Booked. He has 7 yellow cards in 17 home league games this season, 0.41 per game, 1.29 fouls per home match, the highest discipline rate in the United starting XI. Liverpool’s midfield will move the ball through Wirtz and Mac Allister, dragging Casemiro into challenges all afternoon.