The quarter finals begin with a repeat of the 2022 semi final as France face Morocco in Boston. Les Bleus have been the team of the tournament, winning all five and scoring 14, while Morocco arrive as Africa’s last hope but without their leading scorer. Below is my full preview, with a best bet, a bigger priced builder and four singles, all backed by the numbers.
France have won all five games, a combined 14-2 on aggregate
French games have averaged 3.2 goals per game
Mbappe has 17 shots on target in five games (4-4-2-3-4)
France have been imperious, five wins from five and a goal difference that tells the story, so I am with them to win a quarter final they should control. Morocco are without Saibari and I expect France to get the goals their attack deserves, so over 1.5 fits. Mbappe is in the form of his life and rarely goes a game without testing the keeper twice, so 2+ shots on target for him is the leg I am most confident about. 11/8 with bet365 is a fair price on a France side that has looked the most complete in the tournament.
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Hakimi has been fouled 2+ times in all five World Cup games, 14 in total
Diaz has been fouled eight times in five games, including three against Brazil
El Aynaoui has committed nine fouls in five games, including five against the Netherlands
Rahimi averages over two shots on target per 90 and starts with Saibari injured
Kone has committed a foul in four of France’s five games
If you want something with a bit more meat, this five leg builder leans on the physical side of the game. Morocco’s two most dangerous carriers in Hakimi and Diaz get chopped down every single week, while El Aynaoui and Kone are the two most likely to be doing the chopping. Rahimi steps in with Saibari out and gets a real chance to shine. 13/2 with bet365 is a proper price for a bet where every leg is grounded in what these players actually do.
Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change. 18+. T&Cs apply.
Four Singles Worth a Look
Kylian Mbappe to score10/11
Why I like it
Seven goals in five games, the Golden Boot leader
Has scored in four of France’s five matches, including the winner against Paraguay
On penalties and one goal from 20 World Cup goals all time
Soufiane Rahimi 1+ shot on targetEvens
Why I like it
Averages over two shots on target per 90 minutes
Scored against Canada in the last round
Starts up top with Saibari injured
Issa Diop to be carded4/1
Why I like it
Facing the tournament’s top scoring attack, 14 goals in five games
Booked already in the knockouts and tasked with stopping Mbappe’s inside runs
Referee Facundo Tello is one of the strictest in world football and sent a Morocco player off at the 2022 World Cup
Manu Kone to be carded9/2
Why I like it
Committed a foul in four of France’s five games, at 1.4 per game
Patrolling the highest traffic zone against Morocco’s technical midfield
Morocco draw more cards from opponents than any stat in their profile, 2.2 per game
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