Melbourne Cup Preview

THE RACE THAT STOPS THE NATION! Alarm set overnight for the Melbourne Cup from Flemington. Incentivise demolished them in the Caulfield Cup and is a short-priced favourite.

Make sure you scroll right down to the bottom to see any multiples we are placing. These can be added direct to your bet365 bet slip.

Flemington Preview Tuesday Morning

00:20 Flemington Macca’s Run Handicap (3YO plus) 1m6f
01:00 Flemington Resimax Group Subzero Handicap (3YO plus) 7f
01:40 Flemington Furphy Listed Handicap (3YO plus) 1m1f
02:20 Flemington Grinders Coffee Roasters Handicap (3YO plus) 7f
02:55 Flemington Schweppervescence Plate (3YO only) 5f
04:00 Flemington Lexus Melbourne Cup Group 1 Handicap (3YO plus) 2m
05:00 Flemington Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes Group 3 (4YO plus) 7f
05:40 Flemington Tab Trophy Listed Stakes (3YO only) 1m1f
06:15 Flemington MSS Security Sprint Listed Handicap (3YO plus) 6f


04:00 Flemington Lexus Melbourne Cup Group 1 Handicap (3YO plus) 2m

The way INCENTIVISE laughed at them in the Caulfield Cup was mightily impressive so it’s no surprise to see him priced up as the shortest favourite since Phar Lap back in 1930 (won at 8/11). History is certainly against him but he arrives chasing TEN WINS IN A ROW and is a perfect 2-2 at this track. He has won 9 times from 12 starts and is looking to stamp himself as the best stayer in the country. Bookmakers in Australia stand to lose approximately $50 million if he manages to justify favouritism on Tuesday.

The negative against him is the rise in weight from 55.5kg to 57kg here. The last winner to carry 57kg+ was Makybe Diva back in 2005. It’s hard not to be taken with him though and I’d rather keep him onside than take him on in what does look a weaker renewal than usual (due to strict COVID regulations there are only 2 horses prepared outside Australia and New Zealand among the 24 lining up). Some bookies have been quoted as to saying he is really an odds-on shot for the race but given the nature of the contest they are forced to try and take him on. The way he won the Caulfield Cup you’d be confident he’d get two miles but I guess that is the doubt as there is some uncertainty on breeding. If he stays then surely he wins?

Trainer Peter Moody:

“He’s a deserved favourite on form. I’ve just tried to maintain him and hold him together and I’ve been able to do that quite comfortably through his resilience and the way he’s done around the stables. Let’s hope he has a bit of luck and he can continue to build on what has been a wonderful carnival for him so far.”

While I’m confident the favourite is the one to beat I am going to play two at huge prices I think can run well. GRAND PROMENADE is the first of them. He is ultra consistent having placed 14 times from 19 starts and he is versatile as to how the race will be run. He can push forward but he has also won by coming from off the pace too. He led all the way to win the Listed Bano Paterson at the track in July and was also a good winner of the Group 3 Bart Cummings last time. He is tough and honest and the dry track is definitely a plus so I think he ticks plenty of boxes and 16/1 just looks too big.

My second play at big odds has to be PERSAN who came from out the clouds to finish fifth in this race last year. He did head into the race last year in progressive form and has arguably regressed this year but he has been better since resuming placing on return before holding on gamely for third in the Caulfield Cup having raced on the speed. I’m not saying he can turn the tables with the fav but with a bit of luck I think he’ll be bang there and 25/1 is huge in terms of running a place. Plenty of lively dangers possibly headed by Delphi who won the Group 2 Herbert Power before bumping into Incentivise in the Caulfield Cup. The faster conditions will suit but he has to find 10+ lengths which is a big ask.

Flemington Lucky 15

With such good racing from Australia overnight we have included a Lucky 15 at Flemington. Pays 250/1!

Flemington Lucky 15

Race 2 Flemington 00:20 Wil John EYE CATCHER

Race 4 Flemington 01:40 Skyman VALUE TIP

Race 7 Flemington 04:00 Incentivise MELBOURNE CUP

Race 10 Flemington 06:15 Quantico ONE TO WATCH

Pays 250/1!