Saturday’s Australian Horse Racing Tips
LOOKING FORWARD TO THE CRANBOURNE CUP ON SATURDAY! Racing in Australia from Newcastle, Cranbourne, Doomben and over at Ascot. Overnight Double pays 9/2!
NAP – Best tip overnight
Race 5 Doomben 4.32 Drive A Deel (best price 1/1)
Progressive mare who is getting better with each start and had no problem bringing up the hat-trick over track and trip last month; 3-3 over this distance and 2-3 at the track so hard to find any weaknesses; should win.
Great chance for the improving DRIVE A DEEL to win again. She brought up the hat-trick over C&D last month running on strongly at the line. She remains open to further progress after just 9 starts and really should be thumping these. Too Much Class is a decent yardstick and has 6 wins from 22 starts so looks the main danger in the field. She scored at Eagle Farm last month so comes here with confidence high. Joy Too All is another one in form with 5 wins from 11 starts and also deserves a second look but ground to make up with the selection. Akihiro has gone off the boil slightly and this is competitive so needs more. The rest are double-figure prices and have plenty to prove.
Group A kicks-off the World Cup on Sunday 20th November with hosts Qatar taking on Ecuador in the opener. The Group is then made up of Senegal and Netherlands who kick-off their campains the day after.
The Netherlands are clear favourites to win the group and will likely win it and keep their unbeaten run going in the process (W11 D4).
They have never failed to qualify from the group in 10 previous World Cups. It will be close between Senegal and Ecuador with the African Cup
of Nations winners just edging it. If Mane was fit from the start they would have a stronger chance but should have enough to qualify.
Ecuador are really well organised but might lack the firepower to qualify. That leaves the hosts who have very little experience and would be a big shock if they went through.
Group B sees European Championships finalists England as strong favourites despite their recent poor form. An opening game against Iranshould be just they start they need and should win this group.
The opening game between Wales and USA could be huge for 2nd place and I think Wales could edge it. They have been improving plenty of the last few years and should edge out a USA side who qualified behind Mexico and Canada for the tournament. Iran are tough to break down but I don’t expect them to upset many.
Group C includes many peoples favourite for the tournament Argentina . Will Messi tick this off the list? If he is going to they will likely win this group well and extend their unbeaten run to 38 games.
Mexico v Poland will be key in the battle for 2nd place and I give Mexico the edge. They have the experience of getting out the group stages regularly before the last 16 curse strikes. They are hard to split so I wouldn’t be surprised if Poland got through but it is down to that first game. Saudi Arabia are one of the worst ranked teams at the World Cup and will likely finish 4th.
Group D has the holders France as strong favourites and whilst I think that is correct I would have them at a slightly bigger price with Denmark a tricky team to beat. France have so much talent that they should be able go deep in to the tournament despite a few injuries. Their experience from 2018 where they only trailed for 10 minutes all tournament is vital here.
Denmark have actually beaten France twice this year so it won’t be easy for the Champions but I do think they will fall short on topping the group. The odds have this group pretty much spot on apart from Australia finishing above Tunisia as the Aussies scraped through to the World Cup and might find themselves bottom of this group.
I love the make-up of Group E as while Spain are favourites to come out on top with Germany in there along with a possibly underrated Japan and Costa Rica who have escaped similar circumstances before it makes them quite a big price to top it. They come into this World Cup in a much better state than in 2018 when Julen Lopetegui was sacked on the eve of the tournament. They reached the semi-finals at Euro 2020 with Luis Enrique in charge and were finalists in the 2021 Nationals League. Their midfield can pick apart any defence in this tournament and it is no surprise to see them a single figure price to win the whole thing.
Germany will likely be challenging them for top spot despite it being their first major tournament without Joachim Low at the helm since the 2006 World Cup. They won 9 from 10 to qualify for the World Cup but then won just 1 of their 6 Nations League games which would have to be slightly concerning. The good news for Germany is winning this group might not be the best way to progress deep into the tournament. Japan might be slightly underestimated here having won 11 of 13 matches since October 2021. They won their opening game against Colombia in the 2018 World Cup and shouldn’t be entirely written off. Costa Rica also deserve to be mentioned as remember they topped their group back in 2014 which consisted of England, Italy and Uruguay.
Both Belgium and Croatia will be looking to pick up where they left off in 2018 with the former finishing third and Croatia losing out to France in the final. They both look pretty nailed on to qualify from Group F with Belgium strong fancies to top the group. They will need Lukaku to be firing to go deep but I expect them to have too much for these. Their recent record in group stages is hard to fault winning each of their last 7 matches in the competition with only Brazil ever winning eight consecutive World Cup group games.
Even with Modric now 37 I think Croatia will finish second. He has now made 25 appearances for his country at major international tournaments and was the heartbeat that took them to the final in 2018 seeing off England in the Semi-Final. Morocco are set to struggle with Hakim Ziyech their star player but he hasn’t been able to make much impact for Chelsea this season. Canada also lack quality with this being their first World Cup since 1986. They do know where the back of the net is scoring plenty of goals in the CONCACAF qualifying which is a positive.
Five-time champions Brazil head into the 2022 World Cup favourites once more! They look to have a squad packed full of quality and may well fancy their chances to end the 20 year dry spell. They are the only nation to take part in every World Cup in history and have finished top of their group in the first round in every World Cup since 1982. They are 4/11 to top Group G and should justify them cramped odds.
The rest isn’t as easy to predict with Switzerland just shading second. They know how to qualify and if they can stop Aleksandar Mitrovic scoring that should suffice. Serbia have never qualified from the group stage in three World Cup appearances and might come up short once more. Cameroon have goals in them but this looks a tough ask and I’m struggling to see them making an impact.
Cristiano Ronaldo and co will be hoping this is pretty straightforward for Portugal and I tend to agree! They are one of only five European nations to appear at every World Cup from 2002 onwards and while Group H could throw up some entertaining clashes ultimately I expect their quality to shine through. Diogo Jota is definitely a big miss for them but they still have the likes of Bruno Fernandes, João Cancelo and Bernardo Silva and more than enough talent to get them through comfortably.
With Darwin Núñez in goalscoring form Uruguay look the biggest dangers. Suarez also bagged eight goals in qualifying and if in the zone will be a big threat. With Son Heung-min struggling with that eye injury South Korea might be up against it. Ghana are interesting seeing as they average more shots per World Cup game than any other side but they have Portugal in the first game which is worrying.
NB – Second best tip overnight
MY AUSTRALIAN NEXT BEST RUNS IN RACE 4 AT NEWCASTLE ON SATURDAY!
Race 4 Newcastle 3.05 King Frankel (best price 15/8)
Likeable type who has won 2 of his last 3 and showed a good attitude to get on top at Warwick Farm last month; more to come yet stretching out in trip and hard to beat with stamina coming in to play further.
The one to beat here is clearly the progressive KING FRANKEL and this extra distance is only going to help him. He did well in England but did rather lose his way so good to see him back to his best at Warwick Farm last month. He can still do better after just 13 starts and should have too much class for this field. Kukeracha didn’t run badly when sixth at Rosehill so might emerge as the main threat to the favourite. Gin Martini also ran well last time so she looks the other one likely to be asking a few questions. Chalk Stream was beaten 11 lengths into fourth last time but that was a good race. Could be the value play to hit the frame but definitely needs to build on that last performance to have a say.
Daily Double
Race 4 Newcastle 3.05 King Frankel NEXT BEST
Race 5 Doomben 4.32 Drive A Deel NAP
Pays 9/2!
Check out all our tips in Australia in the early hours of Saturday morning
I’ve gone through FOUR cards overnight so here’s what I’m backing (just scroll down). All my tips can be added straight to your bet365 bet slip (just click the orange links)
CLICK HERE TO ADD 9/2 DAILY DOUBLE TO BET365 BET SLIP!
Australian Notebook Double
Race 3 Cranbourne 2.45 Port Philip NOTEBOOK
Race 7 Newcastle 5.00 Saveadateforme NOTEBOOK
Pays 7/1!
Australian Lucky 15
I also have a Lucky 15 Down Under overnight which includes both Notebooks (see above) and the Daily Eye Catcher and Value Tip. This is one of my most popular multiples. Pays 180/1!
Australian Lucky 15
Race 3 Cranbourne 2.45 Port Philip NOTEBOOK
Race 7 Newcastle 5.00 Saceadateforme NOTEBOOK
Race 3 Ascot 5.48 Oly’s Choice EYE CATCHER
Race 9 Doomben 7.12 Extremist VALUE TIP
Pays 180/1!