FOOTBALL TIPS
Royal Ascot Day 1 Tips
The wait is finally over! Royal Ascot is here and we kick off with 3 big Group 1s on the opening day. With Inspiral swerving the Queen Anne it has blown the race wide open and left ante-post punters stung before the week has even started.
The sprint looks as competitive as ever with Big Evs trying to extend his winning sequence and Guineas winner Notable Speech is looking to confirm that Newmarket form with Irish Guineas hero Rosallion in a mouthwatering renewal of the St James’s Palace Stakes.
With Inspiral swerving the race in favour of the Prince of Wales’s Stakes on Wednesday it has blown it wide open. Charyn looks set to go off fav having impressed winning at Doncaster and Sandown before chasing home Audience in the Lockinge. He is very consistent and will give his running but he has repeatedly come up short at this level in the past and must be opposable at around 3/1. I’m taking a chance on DOCKLANDS at a double-figure price. This colt loves the straight mile here having won the Britannia last season. He has left the impression he has a big one in him shaping with promise on both starts this season and looks too big in the betting.
The French horse Facteur Cheval is the one I fear most as he bumped into Big Rock here on Champions Day and warmed up for this with a gutsy win in Dubai back in March. That form has been well advertised and he should run well. Maljoom was only a couple of lengths behind the selection over C&D on reappearance when well backed and if settling better is another one that definitely has a squeak.
Another race that looks wide open on paper with any of 5 or 6 capable of winning it. Aidan O’Brien took it last year with River Tiber and he has a good chance to go back to back with Wootton Bassett colt CAMILLE PISSARRO. He was well backed on debut and duly delivered staying on well to win by a length and a half. He was quickly pitched into a Group 3 at the Curragh last month and while he was beat he went down just a head and the winner Arizona Blaze looks a smart colt who has form with the potentially exciting Whistlejacket who is a stablemate to the selection. He could easily improve again and seems a little overpriced at 6/1 to me.
Joseph O’Brien looks to have the favourite in Cowardofthecounty and he actually beat Whistlejacket on debut so could be useful but that did come on much softer ground and he needs to prove he can do it on this faster surface. If he does then he is clearly a danger to all. Starspangledbanner colt Catalyse impressed winning on debut at Hamilton and if improving could be one to rattle the frame for Richard Fahey and he might be the one I have a saver on.
I’m a big fan of Big Evs and he has been a phenomenal horse for Mick Appleby but favourites have a terrible record in this and he is yet to prove himself at the very top level having come up short in the Nunthorpe last year. I prefer Sprint Cup winner REGIONAL who is an older more battle hardened sprinter and he proved himself at this level winning at Haydock last year. He ran a cracker on reappearance going down less than a length in the Greenlands Stakes over in Ireland and would have been trained for this race. He will be on the speed and is the most likely winner for me.
Obviously Big Evs has to be respected especially with a 3yo in Bradsell winning it last year. He is the likely danger but then I’m not telling you much there with him at the top of the betting. Believing looked a filly in rude health winning the Achilles Stakes at Haydock last time and if this doesn’t come too soon she could run well and get competitive.
I can’t wait to see NOTABLE SPEECH out again following his impressive Guineas win at Newmarket last month. I couldn’t believe how strongly he went through that race and he quickened up well to win impressively. Scarily he still didn’t look the finished article so I think there is plenty more improvement to come yet. Rosallion also went smoothly through the race but found him a length and a half too strong. He came out and won the Irish equivalent next time beating Haatem so the form played out perfectly. He is the danger but in truth I can’t see him even closing that gap let alone reversing the form.
Henry Longfellow represents Aidan O’Brien and still needs respecting despite blowing out in France last time. He should appreciate coming back on a sound surface and could run well but I think he’ll need a big chunk of improvement to threaten the front pair in the betting. Metropolitan has won 3 from 4 but like Henry Longfellow has enough to find.
This race is screaming out for an each way play and PLEDGEOFALLEGIANCE fits the bill. He has won 2 of his last 3 now and impressed beating useful yardstick Temporize at Goodwood last month. He is only up 3lb and should still be open to further improvement over staying trips. He’ll need things to drop right but he seems to gallop all day so this extreme trip could easily prove ideal. The yard could be in better form but at least they have had some winners recently and at around 14/1 at the time of writing that just seems too big.
Zanndabad will go off favourite and has been knocking on the door again going down just a length at Chester last month. Buick is booked so he is a danger to all. Boher Road is on a hat-trick but another 9lb rise does look tough and he isn’t proven over the trip either. My Lyka was denied just a nose over hurdles last month and back on the Flat is another intriguing contender.
I’m confident TORITO can run a big race here. He has been a work in progress and I thought he shaped with a lot of encouragement when third on reappearance at Newmarket last month. He stayed on well but wasn’t given a hard time and only narrowly failed to get up for second. He will be spot on for this and after just 6 career starts is still armed with a lot of potential. He will probably be held up so will require some luck in such a big field but the harder they go the better for him as I think he’ll see out this trip strongly.
Israr is plenty talented but he isn’t the most straightforward so given he is trading as favourite at the time of writing from a price perspective I have decided to oppose. I do rate that form when third to Okeechobee at Sandown and again when bumping into Passenger at Chester so he won’t be far away. Roger Varian is flying so Botanical is also respected as he looks on an upward curve now.
Willie Mullins won this last year with Vauban and he looks to have a leading chance again with BELLOCCIO. This son of Belardo was previously with David Menuisier and he did well for him winning 5 times. He failed to fire last season but on debut for this yard ran out an impressive winner over hurdles at Punchestown last month and would ave been targeted at this. He should be well handicapped off a mark of 100 back on the Flat and with William Buick booked should take a lot of beating.
Fox Journey was impressive bolting up by 11 lengths at Newmarket on reappearance and the sixth Iron Lion and even the last True Courage have both won since so the form isn’t working out badly. A Piece Of Heaven is the one being backed for Joseph O’Brien and he has won 3 of his last 4 and was impressive at Leopardstown last month so is greatly respected on debut for his new yard.
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