Royal Ascot Day 4 Tips
The top quality Group action just keeps on coming at Royal Ascot with the Coronation Stakes one of the highlights on Day 3. Aidan O’Brien hasn’t won the race since back in 2017 with Winter but must have a great chance with the promising Opera Singer and I can see her being very well backed. The feature race the Commonwealth Cup also looks a belter and I’m keen on Elite Status building on that Newbury win and stamping himself as one of the best 3yo sprinters around for Karl Burke. The King Edward VII Stakes also looks an exciting race and Space Legend will be looking to put that luckless run at Goodwood right today. Lots to look forward to as always at this great sporting venue.
Aidan O’Brien won this a couple of years ago with Meditate so I am fearful of Fairy Godmother but I don’t think there should be as much as there is in the betting between her and MOUNTAIN BREEZE
so I’m siding with the latter. This filly by Lope De Vega remains unbeaten which is more than Fairy Godmother can say and she has looked a work in progress but has kept winning which I always think is a good sign. She ran on strongly to win easily again at Newmarket last month and while the runner-up hasn’t boosted the form it was still visually impressive. She has lots more to come yet and I think she is the one to side with here.
It is not just a two-horse race though as Twafeeg did impress me winning on debut at Doncaster and it wouldn’t surprise me if she was the one they came for in regards to hitting the frame. Heavens Gate is a stablemate to the favourite but she also looks to have a bright future and shouldn’t be ignored either in what could turn out to be a decent renewal.
Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum looks to hold the key to this race as he owns the top 2 in the betting in Inisherin and
ELITE STATUS.
The latter is a bigger price though and looks better value for Karl Burke. He was back to his best winning convincingly at Newbury on return last month and with the promise of further improvement to come I can’t see why he is twice the price. The third Adaay In Devon has come out and franked the form winning at Sandown and even James’s Delight who was well down the field in eleventh has won easily at York since.
Inisherin ran respectfully in the Guineas but relished the drop back to sprinting winning impressively at Haydock so does look the danger. Of the rest Jasour came fast and late to peg back Adaay In Devon at Ascot so is another one in with a squeak.
The likeable
OPERA SINGER looked progressive as a 2yo winning 3 of her last 4 starts and I thought she made a really pleasing reappearance when third at the Curragh last month. She clearly needed the run but stuck to the task well once headed and I think she’ll come on tons from that. Aidan O’Brien said much of the same in an interview after the race and confidence seems to be growing regarding her chances here. It will be interesting to see if they go forward with her as there isn’t much pace on and it has paid to be on the speed at Ascot this week.
Elmalka looks promising and has won 2 of her 3 starts to date including the Guineas so if improving again could be the danger. Ramatuelle was behind Elmalka at Newmarket last time but has rock solid form to her name and is another one expected to get competitive.
A big field heading to post but I’m keen to just play the one horse in
DEAKIN for Joseph O’Brien. This good looking son of Australia improved to open his account at Roscommon last year and then followed up impressively at Thurles next time again well backed in the market. He was denied just a neck on reappearance at the Curragh but with that under his belt I expect him to reverse form with Crystal Black and come out on top here. The latter is thriving having won 4 of his last 5 but the handicapper applies more pressure and this is tougher again.
Of the rest Ethical Diamond deserves a mention as he will likely go off favourite for Willie Mullins. He was denied just a nose at Leopardstown last month and it is hard to argue that he isn’t well handicapped off 94 but he does need to prove himself over the trip going up to a mile and a half here and his price is short enough. Shadow Dance impressed at Haydock and then ran well at Newmarket and is another one I can see getting competitive in what looks another wide open race.
Indelible was a very convincing winner on return at Doncaster and given that race has a strong look to it she is likely to be a warm order here. She is entered in the Falmouth and Irish Oaks so connections clearly hoping she will be better than a handicapper in time. I wouldn’t want to take a short price though and
FOREVER BLUE does look a value alternative. She has won 2 of her 3 starts to date and impressed me back from a layoff to win going away at Haydock last time. An opening mark of 95 now handicapping should prove workable and this straight mile could really suit too so 14/1 is way too big.
Plenty of dangers likely headed by the fav but Zaynab arrives on a hat-trick and given she only won by a head on handicap debut she has only gone up 6lb which isn’t too damaging so I think she’ll get competitive. Without Words was only beaten 2 lengths last time and will be spot on for this now handicapping so is another one to note.
I have no doubt that
SPACE LEGEND
was unlucky at Goodwood last time. For whatever reason Tom Marquand allowed him to drift back in the pack having raced prominently early and he just got going too late in the day. He stayed on strongly but couldn’t quite reach the winner Meydaan. That horse ran well when fourth to Illinois in the Queen’s Vase earlier in the week so the form has been boosted. He was impressive at Leicester before that and with this step up to a mile and a half firmly in his favour he should have a great chance.
Diego Velazquez shaped with plenty of promise beaten a length on return in France but did let backers down in the French Derby last time and arrives with a point to prove. This much faster surface should help but he is short enough in the betting. Theory Of Tides is unbeaten having won both starts to date and if improving again might emerge as a greater threat.
This is probably the toughest race of the day so I’ve backed two against the field at nice each way prices.
DORNEY LAKE
has looked progressive and must be a little overpriced in his hat-trick bid. He bolted up at Yarmouth on reappearance and first start following a wind op and then got the job done as his odds suggested at Lingfield last month. He goes handicapping now and with this big field scenario likely to suit and help him settle I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t get seriously involved.
The other one I like is
WOODHAY WONDER
who is actually seeking a five-timer here. She picked up where she left off last season winning on handicap debut at Newmarket back in April and then followed up showing a good attitude last month. She is 5lb higher again but I don’t think her limit has been reached yet and she is a nice price. Shagraan looks one of the dangers having run well at Sandown (when well backed) and again at Newmarket last time. Billy the kid is on board and he could get backed in.
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Royal Ascot Day 4 Tips: Analysing and Predicting Winners
Royal Ascot, one of the most prestigious horse racing festivals in the world, captivates enthusiasts with its blend of high fashion, tradition, and thrilling races. Day 4 of the festival continues the excitement with a mix of top-tier Group races and competitive handicaps. Predicting winners on this day involves a comprehensive analysis of various factors, ranging from horse form and jockey performance to track conditions and historical trends.
Key Races and Contenders
Day 4 features seven exciting races, each offering unique challenges and opportunities for betting enthusiasts. Here are some tips on analysing and predicting the best chances of winners in each race:
The Albany Stakes
- Juvenile Form: Focus on two-year-old fillies that have shown early promise in their careers. Horses that have won or placed well in their maiden or novice races are key contenders.
- Speed and Pedigree: Assess the speed figures from their previous runs and consider their breeding, especially those bred for sprinting distances.
- Trainer and Jockey: Trainers with a strong record in juvenile races and jockeys experienced with young horses can make a significant difference.
The Commonwealth Cup
- Group Form: Look for three-year-olds that have performed well in Group races, particularly those over six furlongs. Horses with consistent high-level performances are often reliable.
- Sprint Specialists: Horses that have demonstrated their ability to handle the pace and intensity of high-class sprints are crucial. Watch for those with strong finishes in their recent runs.
- Ground Conditions: Consider the horses’ performances on various ground types. Versatility or preference for the expected ground conditions can be a decisive factor.
The Duke of Edinburgh Stakes
- Handicap Analysis: Evaluate how well the horses are handicapped. Look for those that appear well-weighted compared to their past performances in handicap races.
- Improvers: Focus on progressive four-year-olds and older horses that have shown improvement in their recent races.
- Stamina: Given the 1 mile 4 furlongs distance, look for horses that have demonstrated staying power in similar or slightly longer races.
The Coronation Stakes
- Class and Consistency: Three-year-old fillies that have consistently performed well in Group 1 or Group 2 races are key contenders. Look for those that have won or placed in the 1,000 Guineas or other top mile races.
- Form and Fitness: Assess their recent form and fitness levels. Fillies coming off strong performances are likely to continue their good form.
- Jockey Expertise: Jockeys with a good record in mile races can provide an advantage, especially those familiar with Ascot’s track.
The Sandringham Stakes
- Class Droppers: Horses dropping in class from Group races to this handicap often perform well. Their experience against tougher competition can give them an edge.
- Unexposed Fillies: Look for lightly raced three-year-old fillies with potential for improvement. These horses often have more to offer than what their form suggests.
- Draw Bias: Pay attention to the draw, as certain stalls can offer a tactical advantage based on the track configuration and race distance.
The King Edward VII Stakes
- Stamina and Class: Focus on three-year-old colts that have shown stamina and class in their previous races. Those with good performances in Derby trials are particularly noteworthy.
- Improvers: Look for horses that have shown significant progression in their recent outings. Improvement in key metrics like finishing speed and stamina can be telling.
- Pedigree: A strong pedigree, particularly for staying races, can indicate a colt’s potential to excel in this 1 mile 4 furlongs race.
The Palace of Holyroodhouse Stakes
- Speed and Sprint Form: Assess the speed figures of the three-year-olds over five furlongs. Horses with a strong record in sprints are key contenders.
- Trainer Patterns: Some trainers target this race specifically, and their entries should be given additional scrutiny.
- Course Form: Horses with previous good runs at Ascot should be noted, as familiarity with the course can be a significant advantage.
Analytical Approach
To predict winners effectively, a combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis is essential:
Form Analysis: Scrutinise the recent form of each horse, focusing on their last three to five runs. Pay attention to the quality of opposition they have faced, the conditions under which they performed, and the margins of their victories or defeats.
Speed Figures: Utilise speed ratings to compare the relative performances of the horses. Horses with consistently high speed figures in their recent races are likely to perform well.
Track Conditions: Monitor the weather forecast and track conditions closely. Some horses perform better on firm ground, while others excel on softer surfaces. Matching a horse’s preference to the expected ground conditions can significantly enhance predictive accuracy.
Historical Trends: Examine historical data for trends such as the success of certain trainers, jockeys, or specific breeding lines in the race. These trends can provide insights that are not immediately apparent from recent form alone.
Betting Market: Keep an eye on the betting market movements. While not always an infallible indicator, significant shifts can sometimes reveal inside information or growing confidence in a particular horse’s chances.
Conclusion
Predicting winners at Royal Ascot, particularly on Day 4, involves a meticulous blend of studying form, understanding race dynamics, and considering external factors like weather and track conditions. By applying a comprehensive analytical approach, punters can enhance their chances of identifying potential winners and enjoying the thrill of this iconic racing festival.